2015 Grand Prix of Indianapolis Pre-Race Strategy Guide

Pit strategy can play a major role in determining who wins a race.  This year I will analyze yellow flag and pit stop history at each track to see if trends exist in the timing and/or frequency of cautions.  If trends do exist, a clever strategist might be able to gain his/her driver a few extra positions on the track by pitting at the correct time.

Caution Breakdown for Grand Prix of Indianapolis 2014

Lap	2014
1	Yellow 1
2	Yellow 1
3	Yellow 1
4	Yellow 1
5	Yellow 1
6	Yellow 1
7	Yellow 1
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42	Yellow 2
43	Yellow 2
44	Yellow 2
45	Yellow 2
46	Yellow 2
47
48	Yellow 3
49	Yellow 3
50	Yellow 3
51
52	Yellow 4
53	Yellow 4
54	Yellow 4
55	Yellow 4
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82

Last year was the first running of the Grand Prix of Indianapolis.  One race doesn't provide enough data for me to feel comfortable making predictions based on the data.  Instead, I'll provide 2 observations.

First, the 2015 race will use a rolling start instead of a standing start.  During a standing start, drivers pull into assigned spots on the front straight, staggered based on each driver's qualifying position.  When special starting lights signal that the cars should begin the race, all drivers are allowed to leave their spots at the same time.  Theoretically, a standing start allows all cars to begin the race closer together, which increases passing opportunities during the first few laps.  Unfortunately, standing starts also increase the risk of crashes, either when a driver makes a mistake while attempting a pass, or because the car's engine shuts down as the driver attempts to leave his/her starting spot.  Alternatively, a rolling start is when the field receives the green flag while traveling at pace car speed, typically between 60 and 100 miles per hour.  Cars are usually not as close together as during a standing start, so there are fewer passing opportunities and less excitement for fans.  On the positive side, there is a lower risk of an accident.  Last year's vicious crash at the start of the race was the result of a car stalling on the grid.  There's always a chance for carnage at Turn 1 of lap 1, but that risk is reduced during a rolling start.

Some fans are already complaining about the lack of standing starts, but until drivers are able to consistently perform standing starts without issue, the IndyCar Series has made the right choice to use rolling starts.  A combination of difficult to use hand clutches, poor anti-stall software, and (probably) a lack of experience making standing starts is behind the series-wide difficulty with standing starts.  The statistics support this: at one point in 2013, the series was 0 for 6 (Search for Kyle in New York's letter) at having incident free standing starts.  Losing 20% of the field before the first turn of a race is a bad look, especially when the race is nationally televised on ABC.

The second observation is that all of the cautions after the start were clustered together.  Cautions 2, 3, and 4 were separated by a single lap of green.  In 2014, cautions bred cautions at the Indy GP.  Hopefully that trend doesn't continue in 2015.

Lap Number of the Winner's Pit Stops*

Year	2014
Winner	Pagenaud
Stop 1	27
Stop 2	44
Stop 3	54

*Each cell contains the lap number and track condition (green or yellow) for each of the winner's pit stops.

A 3 stop strategy had the most success in 2014: 4 of the top 5 made 3 stops.  Several drivers made their final pit stop under caution on lap 54 and successfully reached the end of the 82 lap race, so expect drivers to be able to go about 28 laps on a tank of fuel. 

Cautions per Year

	2014
Total Cautions	4
Total Caution Laps	19
Average Caution Length (Laps)	4.8
First Caution Lap	1
Last Restart (Laps Remaining)	27

 
After relatively clean race at Long Beach and Barber, I feel like there's a good chance that there won't be many cautions in 2015.  Fingers crossed.

I'll be curious to see how well drivers can cope with damaged front wings.  There are a few high speed corners on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course, like the chicane entering the back straight and also turn 11.  However, the rest of the turns seem to be relatively slow.  If a front wing is damaged, strategists might have the option to let a driver continue to race with a damaged front wing instead of pitting immediately for a replacement.

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