2015 Indianapolis 500 Strategy Review

What a fabulous race.  One author called this year's Indianapolis 500 'The Best Three-Way Fight Ever.'  I don't have enough experience with the '500' to make that claim, but it was certainly a race I'll never forget.  I'm not sure what it is about this race, but it seems to produce memorable races at a higher than usual rate.  In the last 10 years, we've seen:

• Sam Hornish pass Marco Andretti on the last lap in 2006
• Dan Wheldon pass a crashed-but-still-rolling JR Hildebrand while coming to take the checkered flag in 2011
• Dario Franchitti slamming the door on Takuma Sato in Turn 1 on the last lap in 2012
• The 2nd closest finish in '500' history in 2014

I attended this year's race with a group of 12 that included 5 first time attendees.  Needless to say, they all had a great time.

Caution Breakdown for Indianapolis 500

Lap	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
1	Yellow 1	Yellow 1					Yellow 1
2	Yellow 1	Yellow 1					Yellow 1
3	Yellow 1	Yellow 1					Yellow 1
4	Yellow 1	Yellow 1			Yellow 1		Yellow 1
5	Yellow 1				Yellow 1		Yellow 1
6	Yellow 1				Yellow 1		Yellow 1
7							Yellow 1
8		Yellow 2					Yellow 1
9		Yellow 2					Yellow 1
10		Yellow 2					Yellow 1
11		Yellow 2					Yellow 1
12
13
14				Yellow 1
15				Yellow 1
16				Yellow 1
17				Yellow 1
18
19
20
21	Yellow 2		Yellow 1
22	Yellow 2		Yellow 1
23	Yellow 2		Yellow 1
24	Yellow 2		Yellow 1
25	Yellow 2		Yellow 1
26	Yellow 2		Yellow 1
27	Yellow 2
28			Yellow 2
29			Yellow 2
30			Yellow 2
31			Yellow 2
32			Yellow 2
33
34
35					Yellow 2
36					Yellow 2
37					Yellow 2
38					Yellow 2
39		Yellow 3			Yellow 2
40		Yellow 3			Yellow 2
41		Yellow 3			Yellow 2
42		Yellow 3			Yellow 2
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57	Yellow 3				Yellow 3
58	Yellow 3				Yellow 3
59	Yellow 3				Yellow 3
60	Yellow 3				Yellow 3
61	Yellow 3
62	Yellow 3		Yellow 3
63			Yellow 3
64			Yellow 3				Yellow 2
65		Yellow 4	Yellow 3				Yellow 2
66		Yellow 4	Yellow 3				Yellow 2
67		Yellow 4	Yellow 3				Yellow 2
68		Yellow 4	Yellow 3				Yellow 2
69		Yellow 4	Yellow 3				Yellow 2
70		Yellow 4
71
72
73		Yellow 5
74		Yellow 5
75		Yellow 5
76		Yellow 5
77		Yellow 5
78		Yellow 5
79
80				Yellow 2
81				Yellow 2
82				Yellow 2
83	Yellow 4			Yellow 2
84	Yellow 4			Yellow 2
85	Yellow 4			Yellow 2
86	Yellow 4			Yellow 2
87	Yellow 4
88	Yellow 4
89	Yellow 4
90				Yellow 3
91				Yellow 3
92				Yellow 3
93				Yellow 3
94				Yellow 3
95
96
97
98	Yellow 5
99	Yellow 5
100	Yellow 5
101	Yellow 5		Yellow 4
102	Yellow 5		Yellow 4
103	Yellow 5		Yellow 4
104	Yellow 5		Yellow 4
105	Yellow 5		Yellow 4
106	Yellow 5	Yellow 6	Yellow 4
107	Yellow 5	Yellow 6	Yellow 4
108	Yellow 5	Yellow 6	Yellow 4
109		Yellow 6
110		Yellow 6
111		Yellow 6
112
113							Yellow 3
114							Yellow 3
115							Yellow 3
116							Yellow 3
117							Yellow 3
118							Yellow 3
119							Yellow 3
120							Yellow 3
121							Yellow 3
122							Yellow 3
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132	Yellow 6
133	Yellow 6
134	Yellow 6
135	Yellow 6
136	Yellow 6
137	Yellow 6
138	Yellow 6
139	Yellow 6
140	Yellow 6
141
142
143
144
145
146				Yellow 4
147				Yellow 4
148		Yellow 7	Yellow 5	Yellow 4
149		Yellow 7	Yellow 5	Yellow 4
150		Yellow 7	Yellow 5	Yellow 4		Yellow 1
151		Yellow 7	Yellow 5	Yellow 4		Yellow 1
152		Yellow 7	Yellow 5			Yellow 1
153		Yellow 7	Yellow 5			Yellow 1	Yellow 4
154		Yellow 7	Yellow 5			Yellow 1	Yellow 4
155		Yellow 7				Yellow 1	Yellow 4
156						Yellow 1	Yellow 4
157							Yellow 4
158			Yellow 6				Yellow 4
159			Yellow 6
160			Yellow 6
161	Yellow 7	Yellow 8	Yellow 6
162	Yellow 7	Yellow 8	Yellow 6
163	Yellow 7	Yellow 8	Yellow 6
164	Yellow 7	Yellow 8	Yellow 6	Yellow 5
165	Yellow 7	Yellow 8		Yellow 5
166	Yellow 7			Yellow 5
167				Yellow 5
168				Yellow 5		Yellow 2	Yellow 5
169				Yellow 5		Yellow 2	Yellow 5
170				Yellow 5		Yellow 2	Yellow 5
171						Yellow 2	Yellow 5
172						Yellow 2	Yellow 5
173						Yellow 2
174	Yellow 8					Yellow 2
175	Yellow 8
176	Yellow 8					Yellow 3
177	Yellow 8					Yellow 3
178	Yellow 8					Yellow 3	Yellow 6
179	Yellow 8					Yellow 3	Yellow 6
180	Yellow 8						Yellow 6
181	Yellow 8			Yellow 6			Yellow 6
182	Yellow 8			Yellow 6			Yellow 6
183				Yellow 6			Yellow 6
184							Yellow 6
185
186
187
188				Yellow 7
189				Yellow 7
190				Yellow 7
191				Yellow 7		Yellow 4
192				Yellow 7		Yellow 5
193				Yellow 7		Yellow 5
194					Yellow 4
195					Yellow 4
196					Yellow 4
197
198					Yellow 5
199					Yellow 5
200		Yellow 9	Yellow 7	Yellow 8	Yellow 5

Cautions per Year

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Total Cautions	8	9	7	8	5	5	6
Total Caution Laps	61	44	42	39	21	21	45
Average Caution Length (Laps)	7.6	4.9	6.0	4.9	4.2	4.2	7.5
First Caution Lap	1	1	21	14	4	150	1
Last Restart (Laps Remaining)	18	35	36	7	4	7	16

As expected, the DW12 chassis continued with its customary reduction in caution flags compared to the chassis it replaced.  I admit, I was getting a bit nervous that the race would never get going once the field completed lap 10 and we had yet to see the cars travel past our seats in Turn 4 at race speed.  However, the race settled down nicely after that.

In addition to reducing the number of caution flags, the DW12 also promotes passing at the front of the field.  Although 2015 didn't come close to the record 68 lead changes that happened in 2013, the 35 passes for the top spot were enough for 2nd most all time.  In fact, the 4 races on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval that have used the DW12 are the 4 races with the most lead changes in '500' history (68 in 2013, 35 in 2015, and 34 in both 2012 and 2014).

It seemed like the aero kits caused the field to space out much more than was common the last 3 years.  Before the race, I anticipated a 20 car 'drafting train' making its way around the speedway.  In reality, 3 drivers from the group of Scott Dixon, Will Power, Simon Pagenaud, Tony Kanaan, and Juan Pablo Montoya were likely to be pulling away from the rest of the field at any point of this year's race.

Lap Number of the Winner's Pit Stops*

Year	2012	2013	2014	2015
Winner	Franchitti	Kanaan	Hunter-Reay	Montoya
Stop 1	15	29	31	7
Stop 2	48	58	63	8
Stop 3	78	90	94	10
Stop 4	118	121	124	41
Stop 5	147	153	153	66
Stop 6	166	178	170	99
Stop 7	N/A	N/A	192	116
Stop 8	N/A	N/A	N/A	151
Stop 9	N/A	N/A	N/A	170

*Each cell contains the lap number and track condition (green or yellow) for each of the winner's pit stops.

There were fewer pit stops in the race than I expected.  Winner Juan Pablo Montoya made 9 stops, but 3 of those were made as a result of his incident with Simona de Silvestro.  2nd place finisher Will Power made only 6 stops, and waited until lap 38 to make his first stop.  Admittedly, this stint was aided by a lengthy caution period to start the race (laps 1 - 11).  However, it was also shortened by the 3 parade laps before the start of the race that don't count towards the lap count.  Assuming that 2 caution laps are equivalent to one green flag lap, Power went 34 laps during this stint (38 - 11 + (14/2)).  I have no idea why mileage at Indianapolis was so much better than at other races this year.

Non-Statistical Observations

Time for Honda to hit the panic button
I tried to withhold judgement on Honda in 2015 until they raced their oval aero kit.  I reasoned that a dominant Honda oval kit could even give Ryan Hunter-Reay a chance at the 2015 championship since there didn't seem to be any other Honda drivers capable of giving Hunter-Reay a run for his money in his theoretically dominant oval car.  Of course, that theory required Honda cars to be much better than Chevrolet cars on large ovals. 

They aren't.

The best qualifying Honda on the Indianapolis oval was Justin Wilson in 6th, 1.5 miles per hour slower than polesitter Scott Dixon.  I maintained my optimism for Honda by telling myself that the draft would keep Honda competitive during the race.  Although the best finishing Honda was 5th placed Graham Rahal, this result doesn't capture how far off pace the Honda cars were.  Honda cars only lead 7 laps during the race, and these were all because the Chevy cars in front of them pitted.


I was ready to blame the poor performance on Honda's aerodynamics.  Honda's aero kit designer, Wirth Research, already has a history of less than stellar results in Formula 1 and sports cars.  However, after the race, reports also indicated that the Honda engines were down on horsepower relative to Chevrolet engines.

I certainly hope that Honda can close the gap to Chevrolet.  IndyCar wouldn't exist if it hadn't been for the support that it received from Honda during the dark years of 'The Split'.  Hopefully, Honda is able to make the most of the updates it is allowed to make in the near future.

Nice updates on the fly at IMS
The Indianapolis Motor Speedway spent a lot of money installing fancy new video boards and scoring towers for this year's race.  I assume the group I attended the race with weren't the only fans who were frustrated that there was no way to know what lap the leaders were on.  Fortunately, IMS rectified this mistake by adding a lap tracker to the video boards around lap 50.  Nice save, IMS.

If you want to get in touch, feel free to leave a comment or send an email to spottersstand@gmail.com.  Follow the blog on Twitter (@spotstandblog) for reminders about new posts.