2015 Texas Motor Speedway Pre-Race Strategy Guide

Pit strategy can play a major role in determining who wins a race.  This year, I will analyze yellow flag and pit stop history at each track to see if trends exist in the timing and/or frequency of cautions.  If trends do exist, a clever strategist might be able to gain his/her driver a few extra positions on the track by pitting at the correct time.

Caution Breakdown for Texas Motor Speedway

Lap	2009	2010	2011 #1	2011 #2	2012	2013	2014
1
2	Yellow 1
3	Yellow 1
4	Yellow 1
5	Yellow 1					Yellow 1	Yellow 1
6	Yellow 1					Yellow 1	Yellow 1
7	Yellow 1					Yellow 1	Yellow 1
8	Yellow 1					Yellow 1	Yellow 1
9	Yellow 1					Yellow 1	Yellow 1
10						Yellow 1	Yellow 1
11						Yellow 1
12						Yellow 1
13						Yellow 1
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31					Yellow 1
32					Yellow 1
33					Yellow 1
34					Yellow 1
35					Yellow 1
36					Yellow 1
37					Yellow 1
38					Yellow 1
39					Yellow 1
40
41
42
43
44
45
46		Yellow 1
47		Yellow 1
48		Yellow 1
49		Yellow 1
50		Yellow 1
51		Yellow 1
52
53
54						Yellow 2
55						Yellow 2
56						Yellow 2
57		Yellow 2				Yellow 2
58		Yellow 2				Yellow 2
59		Yellow 2				Yellow 2
60		Yellow 2				Yellow 2
61		Yellow 2				Yellow 2
62		Yellow 2				Yellow 2
63		Yellow 2
64		Yellow 2
65		Yellow 2			Yellow 2
66					Yellow 2
67					Yellow 2
68					Yellow 2
69					Yellow 2
70					Yellow 2
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94			Yellow 1
95			Yellow 1
96			Yellow 1
97			Yellow 1
98			Yellow 1
99		Yellow 3	Yellow 1
100		Yellow 3	Yellow 1
101		Yellow 3	Yellow 1
102		Yellow 3	Yellow 1
103		Yellow 3	Yellow 1
104		Yellow 3
105		Yellow 3
106		Yellow 3
107		Yellow 3
108		Yellow 3
109		Yellow 3
110		Yellow 3
111		Yellow 3
112
113						Yellow 3
114						Yellow 3
115						Yellow 3
116						Yellow 3
117						Yellow 3
118						Yellow 3
119						Yellow 3
120						Yellow 3
121						Yellow 3	Yellow 2
122							Yellow 2
123							Yellow 2
124							Yellow 2
125							Yellow 2
126							Yellow 2
127							Yellow 2
128							Yellow 2
129							Yellow 2
130		Yellow 4					Yellow 2
131		Yellow 4			Yellow 3		Yellow 2
132		Yellow 4			Yellow 3		Yellow 2
133		Yellow 4			Yellow 3		Yellow 2
134		Yellow 4			Yellow 3
135		Yellow 4			Yellow 3
136		Yellow 4			Yellow 3
137		Yellow 4			Yellow 3
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150	Yellow 2
151	Yellow 2
152	Yellow 2
153	Yellow 2
154	Yellow 2
155	Yellow 2
156	Yellow 2
157	Yellow 2
158	Yellow 2
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173	Yellow 3
174	Yellow 3				Yellow 4
175	Yellow 3				Yellow 4
176	Yellow 3				Yellow 4
177	Yellow 3				Yellow 4
178	Yellow 3				Yellow 4
179	Yellow 3				Yellow 4
180	Yellow 3				Yellow 4
181	Yellow 3				Yellow 4
182					Yellow 4
183					Yellow 4
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242							Yellow 3
243							Yellow 3
244							Yellow 3
245							Yellow 3
246
247
248

*In 2011, IndyCar ran a pair of doubleheader races at Texas.  Each race was half distance, and awarded half points.  Mercifully, they discontinued the practice after one year.

After Chevrolet totally dominated the first oval race of the year, I still think there's a slight chance that Texas Motor Speedway could suit Honda cars well.  Hondas are thought to be more gentle on their tires than the Chevrolets.  They're also supposed to have a bit better gas mileage.  The DW12's ultra low downforce package at Texas has placed a premium on tire wear in recent years, and if a yellow comes out during a cycle of pit stops, it's conceivable that some Chevrolet cars could be trapped multiple laps down to Honda cars that have yet to pit.  A well timed yellow could theoretically take many Chevrolet cars out of contention for the win.  I'm not saying I think this will happen, but there's a chance it could.

Cautions per Year

	2009	2010	2011 #1	2011 #2	2012	2013	2014
Total Cautions	3	4	1	0	4	3	3
Total Caution Laps	26	36	10	0	32	27	23
Average Caution Length (Laps)	8.7	9.0	10.0	0.0	8.0	9.0	7.7
First Caution Lap	2	46	94	N/A	31	5	5
Last Restart (Laps Remaining)	47	91	11	N/A	43	107	3

Caution Averages

	2009 to 2011 Avg	2012 to 2014 Avg	2009 to 2014 Avg
Total Cautions	2.7	3.3	2.6
Total Caution Laps	24.0	27.3	22.0
Average Caution Length (Laps)	9.2	8.2	7.5
First Caution Lap	47.3	13.7	30.5
Last Restart (Laps Remaining)	49.7	51.0	50.3

Texas is the first track that IndyCar has visited in 2015 that has had an increase in yellows since 2015.  The chart above even treats the pair of half distance races in 2011 as a single race, and the number of cautions per race was still lower between 2009 and 2011, before the DW12 was in use.  Fortunately, cautions have still been quite rare at Texas even after the arrival of the DW12.

Lap Number of the Winner's Pit Stops*

Year	2013	2014
Winner	Castroneves	Carpenter
Stop 1	53	52
Stop 2	116	89
Stop 3	175	126
Stop 4	N/A	172
Stop 5	N/A	213

 
*Each cell contains the lap number and track condition (green or yellow) for each of the winner's pit stops.

As I mentioned earlier, tire wear has been significant during the last few races at Texas.  2014 race winner Ed Carpenter lost 7 tenths of a second over the course of a tire run last year, dropping from 24.6 second laps with fresh rubber to 25.3 second laps on worn tires.  If Honda can be 2 or 3 tenths of a second quicker than Chevrolet at the end of tire run, that could be a major advantage.

Last year, a pitting car at Texas needed about 87 seconds to complete an in-lap, pit stop, and out-lap.  At the end of stints, cars were running laps of 25.3 seconds, meaning that a pit stop will cost a driver 36.4 seconds (87 - [2*25.3]).  A leader would need a lead of 11.1 seconds to avoid losing a lap during a pit stop (36.4 seconds lost - 11.1 second lead = 25.3 seconds).  This means everyone will want to avoid making pit stops under green unless absolutely necessary.  (I explained why leaders prefer not to lose a lap when pitting in the 2015 Indianapolis 500 Pre Race Strategy Guide.)

Enjoy the race!

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