2015 Toronto Pre-Race Strategy Guide

Pit strategy can play a major role in determining who wins a race.  This year, I will analyze yellow flag and pit stop history at each track to see if trends exist in the timing and/or frequency of cautions.  If trends do exist, a clever strategist might be able to gain his/her driver a few extra positions on the track by pitting at the correct time.

Caution Breakdown for Toronto

Lap	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013 #1	2013 #2	2014 #1	2014 #2
1					Yellow 1		Yellow 1	Yellow 1
2					Yellow 1		Yellow 1	Yellow 1
3			Yellow 1		Yellow 1
4			Yellow 1
5			Yellow 1
6
7
8	Yellow 1
9	Yellow 1
10	Yellow 1
11
12	Yellow 2							Yellow 2
13	Yellow 2							Yellow 2
14								Yellow 2
15								Yellow 2
16								Yellow 2
17		Yellow 1					Yellow 2	Yellow 2
18		Yellow 1					Yellow 2	Yellow 2
19		Yellow 1					Yellow 2
20		Yellow 1
21
22		Yellow 2
23		Yellow 2
24		Yellow 2		Yellow 1				Yellow 3
25		Yellow 2		Yellow 1				Yellow 3
26				Yellow 1				Yellow 3
27		Yellow 3		Yellow 1
28		Yellow 3
29		Yellow 3
30		Yellow 3
31			Yellow 2
32			Yellow 2
33		Yellow 4	Yellow 2					Yellow 4
34		Yellow 4	Yellow 2					Yellow 4
35			Yellow 2		Yellow 2
36					Yellow 2
37					Yellow 2
38					Yellow 2
39			Yellow 3		Yellow 2
40			Yellow 3
41			Yellow 3
42			Yellow 3
43
44								Yellow 5
45								Yellow 5
46								Yellow 5
47								Yellow 5
48			Yellow 4
49			Yellow 4
50			Yellow 4
51			Yellow 4					Yellow 6
52								Yellow 7
53
54
55
56
57			Yellow 5
58			Yellow 5
59	Yellow 3		Yellow 5
60	Yellow 3		Yellow 5
61	Yellow 3
62
63
64
65					Yellow 3	Yellow 1
66	Yellow 4	Yellow 5	Yellow 6		Yellow 3	Yellow 1
67	Yellow 4	Yellow 5	Yellow 6		Yellow 3	Yellow 1
68	Yellow 4	Yellow 5	Yellow 6		Yellow 3	Yellow 1
69	Yellow 4	Yellow 5	Yellow 6			Yellow 1
70		Yellow 5	Yellow 6			Yellow 1
71
72			Yellow 7
73			Yellow 7
74		Yellow 6	Yellow 7
75	Yellow 5	Yellow 6	Yellow 7
76	Yellow 5
77	Yellow 5		Yellow 8
78			Yellow 8
79			Yellow 8
80				Yellow 2
81				Yellow 2		Yellow 2
82					Yellow 4	Yellow 2
83				Yellow 3	Yellow 4
84				Yellow 3		Yellow 3
85						Yellow 3

Since the arrival of the DW12, yellow flags at Toronto haven't been clustered together.  Since 2012, only 2 of a total 19 cautions have come within 2 laps of another caution.

Cautions per Year

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013 #1	2013 #2	2014 #1	2014 #2
Total Cautions	5	6	8	3	4	3	2	7
Total Caution Laps	15	21	32	8	14	10	5	20
Average Caution Length (Laps)	3.0	3.5	4.0	2.7	3.5	3.3	2.5	2.9
First Caution Lap	8	17	3	24	1	65	1	1
Last Restart (Laps Remaining)	8	10	6	1	2	3	46	11

Caution Averages

	2009 to 2011 Avg	2012 to 2014 Avg	2009 to 2014 Avg
Total Cautions	6.3	3.8	4.8
Total Caution Laps	22.7	11.4	15.6
Average Caution Length (Laps)	3.5	3.0	3.2
First Caution Lap	9.3	18.4	15.0
Last Restart (Laps Remaining)	8.0	12.6	10.9

The DW12 has made racing at Toronto tolerable.  Like Detroit's Belle Isle street circuit, Toronto has been known to produce crash fests with far too many caution laps.  Fortunately, the average number of cautions per race has fallen by over 2.5 cautions since the DW12 was introduced to IndyCar in 2012.  The first caution arrives later, and the last green flag run is longer with the DW12 compared to the previous IndyCar chassis.  Admittedly, some of the improvement is probably due to the shorter 65 lap races that were used in 2014 because of the double headers, but I still believe a majority of the reduction was because of the DW12.

Although the DW12 has reduced cautions, this weekend's race will probably have at least 4 yellows.  Teams will have plenty of opportunities to go 'off strategy' and use a different strategy than the race leaders.  Look for cars outside the top 10 to stop early.  Cars that pit just before a caution will pass cars that stop under the yellow.  This strategy does have its risks, though.  If a yellow does not arrive, cars that stopped early may be forced to make an extra pit stop than the leaders.

Lap Number of the Winner's Pit Stops*

Year	2013 #1	2013	2014 #1	2014 #2
Winner	Dixon	Dixon	Bourdais	Conway
Stop 1	26	24	1	14
Stop 2	62	57	34	20
Stop 3	N/A	N/A	N/A	43

*Each cell contains the lap number and track condition (green or yellow) for each of the winner's pit stops.

The winner will make at least 3 pit stops on Sunday in Toronto.  Mike Conway made 3 stops during the 2nd race of Toronto's doubleheader weekend in 2014, and both races last year were 65 laps long because of the doubleheader format.  This year there will be a single 85 lap race, and when the longer race distance is combined with the decreased fuel mileage that cars seem to be achieving, 4 pit stops seem possible.

Enjoy the race.

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