2015 Long Beach Pre Race Strategy Guide

Pit strategy can play a major role in determining who wins a race.  A conveniently timed yellow flag, when coupled with a well-timed pit stop, can vault a driver to the top of the running order.  On the flip side, a yellow flag that is poorly timed with a pit stop can ruin an otherwise great day.

This year I will analyze yellow flag and pit stop history at each track to see if trends exist in the timing and/or frequency of cautions.  If trends do exist, a clever strategist might be able to gain his/her driver a few extra positions on the track by pitting at the correct time.

Caution Breakdown for Long Beach

Lap	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
1				Yellow 1
2				Yellow 1
3				Yellow 1	Yellow 1
4					Yellow 1
5					Yellow 1
6					Yellow 1
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17	Yellow 1
18	Yellow 1
19	Yellow 1
20	Yellow 1			Yellow 2
21				Yellow 2
22
23				Yellow 3
24	Yellow 2			Yellow 3
25	Yellow 2		Yellow 1	Yellow 3
26	Yellow 2		Yellow 1	Yellow 3
27	Yellow 2		Yellow 1	Yellow 3		Yellow 1
28			Yellow 1	Yellow 3		Yellow 1
29			Yellow 1	Yellow 3		Yellow 1
30			Yellow 1		Yellow 2	Yellow 1
31					Yellow 2
32					Yellow 2
33					Yellow 2
34
35					Yellow 3
36					Yellow 3
37					Yellow 3
38
39	Yellow 3
40	Yellow 3
41						Yellow 2
42						Yellow 2
43						Yellow 2
44						Yellow 2
45
46
47
48
49
50
51					Yellow 4
52					Yellow 4
53					Yellow 4
54	Yellow 4				Yellow 4
55	Yellow 4
56	Yellow 4					Yellow 3
57	Yellow 4					Yellow 3
58						Yellow 3
59						Yellow 3
60		Yellow 1				Yellow 3
61		Yellow 1				Yellow 3
62		Yellow 1				Yellow 3
63		Yellow 1	Yellow 2			Yellow 3
64		Yellow 1	Yellow 2
65			Yellow 2
66
67			Yellow 3
68			Yellow 3			Yellow 4
69			Yellow 3			Yellow 4
70
71
72
73
74	Yellow 5
75	Yellow 5
76	Yellow 5
77
78
79
80					Yellow 5
81
82
83
84
85

The following laps were run under yellow in at least 50% of the races over the last 6 years:

• 25 through 30
• 63

Based on this data, it might be beneficial for drivers to pit before the leaders start these laps.  A driver who pitted just before a yellow flag (and stayed on the lead lap) is likely to gain positions under the caution as other drivers make pit stops.

I want to add that I'm not convinced that there is something special about these laps that makes them more likely to be run under caution.  The list above may be a racing equivalent of the Wyatt Earp Effect.  The exceptions to this are the first laps of a race, where I believe cautions are more likely to occurr.  Cars race in close proximity at the start of a race, and passing attempts are common.  Small mistakes are magnified as cars race wheel to wheel and drivers have less margin for error than they normally do because there are so many other cars nearby.

Lap Number of the Winner's Pit Stops*

Year	2012	2013	2014
Winner	Power	Sato	Conway
Stop 1	20	28	22
Stop 2	54	51	53

*Each cell contains the lap number and track condition (green or yellow) for each of the winner's pit stops.

In 2013, IndyCar shortened the race distance to 80 laps.  This was probably an attempt to reduce the chance of drivers saving fuel during the race.  Expect the winner to make 2 pit stops in Long Beach.

Multiple drivers went 28 laps on a tank of fuel in 2013 (80 lap race distance - end of lap 51 final pit stop).  Their final stint consisted of only 4 caution laps.  Since 2 caution laps are traditionally assumed to take the same amount of fuel as 1 green flag lap, expect drivers to be able to go about 26 laps on a tank of fuel in 2015.  It's important to note that the distance that a car can go on fuel may have changed since 2012.  Engine developments may have increased power at the expense of fuel mileage, or they may have increased fuel mileage at the expense of power.

Cautions per Year

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Total Cautions	5	1	3	3	5	4
Total Caution Laps	17	5	12	12	16	18
Average Caution Length (Laps)	3.4	5.0	4.0	4.0	3.2	4.5
First Caution Lap	17	60	25	1	3	27
Last Restart (Laps Remaining)	9	21	16	56	26	11

Caution Averages

	2009 to 2011 Avg	2012 to 2014 Avg	2009 to 2014 Avg
Total Cautions	3.0	4.0	3.5
Total Caution Laps	11.3	15.3	13.3
Average Caution Length (Laps)	4.1	3.9	4.0
First Caution Lap	34.0	10.3	22.2
Last Restart (Laps Remaining)	15.3	31.0	23.2

Long Beach is the first track IndyCar has visited in 2015 that has not seen cautions on lap 1 or 2 in at least 3 of the last 6 races.  For some reason, fewer accidents seem to happen around the start at Long Beach than happen at St. Petersburg or Barber Motorsports Park (which provided replacement data for NOLA Motorsports Park since IndyCar had not raced there before 2015).  Fewer accidents occur on restarts as well: cautions don't seem clustered together at Long Beach like they do at other tracks.  The pre-aero kit DW12 chassis was more likely to forgive minor contact than the IR02 chassis.  Perhaps minor contact happens less at Long Beach than other tracks.

On a final note, it will be interesting to see if drivers are able to post competitive lap times with damaged front wings at Long Beach.  Drivers were able to run competitive lap times with damaged front wings at St. Petersburg.  Will Power finished the race in 2nd position despite driving the final 10 laps with moderate damage to his front wing.  NOLAMP's high speed corners meant that even a slightly damaged front wing needed to be replaced.  Long Beach will probably fall somewhere between St. Pete and NOLAMP.  It has its fair share of slow corners, like the fountain complex and notoriously tight turn 11, but turns 6 through 10 seem fast enough that any lost downforce will be missed.

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