2015 Long Beach Strategy Review

I made some predictions in last week's Long Beach Pre Race Strategy Guide.  It's time to see which ones were right and which were wrong. 

I compared caution laps from the last 6 races (2009 to 2014) and identified laps that had been run under caution in at least 3 of the last 6 races.  I thought these laps potentially had a higher chance of being run under yellow in the 2015 race.  Those results are below.

Predicted Caution Lap	2015 Caution?
25 through 30	No
63	No

At this point, my suspicions are beginning to appear more correct after each race: just because a lap has been run under caution a lot in the past doesn't mean it is likely to be run under caution in the future (with the exception of laps 1 and 2).  

Caution Breakdown for Long Beach  

Lap	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
1				Yellow 1
2				Yellow 1
3				Yellow 1	Yellow 1
4					Yellow 1
5					Yellow 1		Yellow 1
6					Yellow 1		Yellow 1
7							Yellow 1
8							Yellow 1
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17	Yellow 1
18	Yellow 1
19	Yellow 1
20	Yellow 1			Yellow 2
21				Yellow 2
22
23				Yellow 3
24	Yellow 2			Yellow 3
25	Yellow 2		Yellow 1	Yellow 3
26	Yellow 2		Yellow 1	Yellow 3
27	Yellow 2		Yellow 1	Yellow 3		Yellow 1
28			Yellow 1	Yellow 3		Yellow 1
29			Yellow 1	Yellow 3		Yellow 1
30			Yellow 1		Yellow 2	Yellow 1
31					Yellow 2
32					Yellow 2
33					Yellow 2
34
35					Yellow 3
36					Yellow 3
37					Yellow 3
38
39	Yellow 3
40	Yellow 3
41						Yellow 2
42						Yellow 2
43						Yellow 2
44						Yellow 2
45
46
47
48
49
50
51					Yellow 4
52					Yellow 4
53					Yellow 4
54	Yellow 4				Yellow 4
55	Yellow 4
56	Yellow 4					Yellow 3
57	Yellow 4					Yellow 3
58						Yellow 3
59						Yellow 3
60		Yellow 1				Yellow 3
61		Yellow 1				Yellow 3
62		Yellow 1				Yellow 3
63		Yellow 1	Yellow 2			Yellow 3
64		Yellow 1	Yellow 2
65			Yellow 2
66
67			Yellow 3
68			Yellow 3			Yellow 4
69			Yellow 3			Yellow 4
70
71
72
73
74	Yellow 5
75	Yellow 5
76	Yellow 5
77
78
79
80					Yellow 5
81
82
83
84
85

 
Cautions per Year

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Total Cautions	5	1	3	3	5	4	1
Total Caution Laps	17	5	12	12	16	18	4
Average Caution Length (Laps)	3.4	5.0	4.0	4.0	3.2	4.5	4.0
First Caution Lap	17	60	25	1	3	27	5
Last Restart (Laps Remaining)	9	21	16	56	26	11	72

After 2 races with many yellows in 2015, it was a huge relief to only have 1 yellow flag at Long Beach.  2015 was tied for the fewest number of yellows at Long Beach since 2009.  IndyCar's last minute mandate that Chevrolet remove the 'rabbit ears' from its aero kits probably deserves some credit for the reduction in yellow flags relative to other 2015 races, although this is the second time that the series has changed the rules on the fly for the aero kit manufacturers.  I hope the IndyCar technical staff can get it together.  Hindsight is always 20/20, but IndyCar staff should have foreseen these issues when they were writing the rule book, instead of when the aero kits were already in development or in use.

In the strategy preview for Long Beach, I noted that cautions at Long Beach do not appear as 'clustered' as they do at other tracks.  After watching the race, I believe the extremely tight hairpin at Long Beach and the proximity of the start finish line to the hairpin prevents cars from staying close together on starts and restarts.  Cars cannot run double file through the hairpin, so drivers must align themselves in double file on the front straight after exiting the hairpin.  Since the start finish line is so close to the hairpin, the leader receives the green flag when a significant portion of the field has not passed through the hairpin.  This issue is exacerbated when the leader doesn't even allow the 2nd place qualifier to line up alongside at the start (skip ahead to 11:45).  Since the cars are so spread out there are fewer opportunities to pass, and therefore fewer opportunities to crash.

Lap Number of the Winner's Pit Stops*

*Each cell contains the lap number and track condition (green or yellow) for each of the winner's pit stops.

Scott Dixon continued the trend of winners needing 2 pit stops to finish the race.

Year	2012	2013	2014	2015
Winner	Power	Sato	Conway	Dixon
Stop 1	20	28	22	29
Stop 2	54	51	53	54

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