Drivers in this section have an outside chance at winning the 2015 championship. They both have minor flaws, but with a bit of racing luck either one could be in the hunt for the championship.
Ryan Hunter-Reay
| Oval | Road | Street | |||||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Average start position | 9.4 | 6.5 | 13.5 | 8.3 | 2 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 10.3 |
| Average finish position | 10.8 | 6.2 | 12.7 | 18 | 4 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 17.1 | 13.1 |
Projected Average Finish Rank: 6th
Since winning the 2012 championship, Hunter-Reay has finished 7th and 6th in points. Hunter-Reay is one of the quicker drivers for a single lap. He has the second best average starting position for both road courses and street courses among 2015 drivers since 2012. His average starting position across all track types is second best. He also does a decent job of converting these good starting positions into wins (4 in 2012, 2 in 2013, and 3 in 2014). But if he doesn't win, Hunter-Reay seems to have bad finishes.
Potential Weakness: Staying on the lead lap
During Hunter-Reay's 2012 championship season, he finished off the lead lap in 27% of races. That figure swelled to 53% in 2013, and stayed at an alarmingly high 44% in 2014. Hunter-Reay wins enough races to win championships, but I question whether he is consistent enough to win another. I'd be less concerned about a driver not finishing on the lead lap if this was with someone who wasn't pursuing a championship - lead lap finishes aren't valuable to non-championship contenders. However, the lead driver at Andretti Autosport needs to be a championship contender, and that starts by finishing on the lead lap.
Recommended Strategy: Conservative until Indianapolis 500
Hunter-Reay is easily the strongest Honda driver. If Honda has an advantage over Chevrolet with one or both of its two aero kits, he could become a championship contender. Banking as many points as possible (by finishing races on the lead lap) in the races before the Indianapolis 500 is a good idea. After the 500, the team will know how the Honda and Chevrolet aero kits compare to one another. If Honda has an advantage, Hunter-Reay will be well positioned to pursue the 2015 championship by continuing to stay on the lead lap. If Honda is behind, Hunter-Reay can go for wins since he is no longer concerned about points.
Helio Castroneves
| Oval | Road | Street | |||||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Average start position | 8.8 | 10 | 6.2 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 3.6 |
| Average finish position | 6.8 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 14.8 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 8 |
Predicted Average Finish Rank: 3rd
Castroneves finished 2nd in the final point standings for the second consecutive year in 2014, bringing his career total to 4. Always a model of consistency, Castroneves has impressive averages when compared to other IndyCar drivers in 2015. Since 2012, he has the best average starting position on street courses, and the best average starting position across all types of tracks. Castroneves is even better when the checkered flag falls - he has the best oval, street course, and overall average finishing positions since 2012. An unusually low average finish on road courses in 2014 probably cost him the championship last year.
Potential Weakness: Lack of Wins
Since moving to IndyCar in 2001, Castroneves has won more than 2 races in a season only twice. He won 1 race in both 2013 and 2014. Admittedly, when looking back to 2013 and 2014, replacing two second place finishes each year with wins would not have been enough to win him the championship (He would have lost by 7 in 2013 and 42 in 2014). However, in reality those wins would have cost other competitors points as well. For example, a win at Toronto Race 1 in 2013 would have given Castroneves 10 more points, and taken 10 points away from eventual champion Scott Dixon, a total swing of 20 points. Castroneves' championship rivals also had the luxury of knowing that he was unlikely to win many races, which would have allowed them to take fewer chances.
Recommended Strategy: Be aggressive
Castroneves has proven he can win the Indianapolis 500 and score points consistently. The only thing left for him to do is win a championship. I suggest being more aggressive and trying to convert podium finishes into wins. Wins obviously give Castroneves more points than others, but are also valuable because they take points away from rivals.
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