2015 Dual in Detroit Pre-Race Strategy Guide

Pit strategy can play a major role in determining who wins a race.  This year, I will analyze yellow flag and pit stop history at each track to see if trends exist in the timing and/or frequency of cautions.  If trends do exist, a clever strategist might be able to gain his/her driver a few extra positions on the track by pitting at the correct time.

Caution Breakdown for Duals in Detroit

Lap	2007	2008	2012	2013 #1	2013 #2	2014 #1	2014 #2
1		Yellow 1		Yellow 1	Yellow 1		Yellow 1
2		Yellow 1		Yellow 1	Yellow 1		Yellow 1
3				Yellow 1	Yellow 1		Yellow 1
4
5						Yellow 1
6						Yellow 1
7						Yellow 1
8
9
10					Yellow 2		Yellow 2
11					Yellow 2		Yellow 2
12					Yellow 2		Yellow 2
13							Yellow 2
14					Yellow 3
15
16						Yellow 2
17						Yellow 2
18		Yellow 2				Yellow 2
19		Yellow 2				Yellow 2
20					Yellow 4
21					Yellow 4
22					Yellow 4
23
24					Yellow 5
25				Yellow 2	Yellow 5
26				Yellow 2	Yellow 5
27				Yellow 2
28	Yellow 1			Yellow 2	Yellow 6
29	Yellow 1			Yellow 2	Yellow 6
30	Yellow 1			Yellow 2	Yellow 6
31					Yellow 6
32	Yellow 2				Yellow 6
33	Yellow 2				Yellow 6
34	Yellow 2	Yellow 3		Yellow 3	Yellow 6
35	Yellow 2	Yellow 3		Yellow 3	Yellow 6
36	Yellow 2	Yellow 3		Yellow 3	Yellow 6
37	Yellow 2	Yellow 3		Yellow 3		Yellow 3
38				Yellow 3		Yellow 3
39						Yellow 3
40			Yellow 1			Yellow 3
41			Yellow 1			Yellow 3
42			Yellow 1			Yellow 3
43			Yellow 1			Yellow 3
44			Yellow 1
45			Yellow 2
46			Yellow 2
47
48	Yellow 3		Yellow 3
49	Yellow 3		Yellow 3
50			Yellow 3
51
52			Yellow 4
53			Yellow 4
54
55
56	Yellow 4					Yellow 4
57	Yellow 4					Yellow 4
58						Yellow 4
59							Yellow 3
60							Yellow 3
61							Yellow 3
62							Yellow 3
63
64
65							Yellow 4
66		Yellow 4					Yellow 4
67		Yellow 4
68	Yellow 5	Yellow 4
69	Yellow 5
70	Yellow 5
71	Yellow 5
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88	Yellow 6
89	Yellow 6

Cautions per Year

	2007	2008	2012	2013 #1	2013 #2	2014 #1	2014 #2
Total Cautions	6	4	4	3	6	4	4
Total Caution Laps	19	11	12	14	22	17	13
Average Caution Length (Laps)	3.2	2.8	3.0	4.7	3.7	4.3	3.3
First Caution Lap	28	1	40	1	1	5	1
Last Restart (Laps Remaining)	18	19	7	32	34	12	4

Caution Averages

	2007 & 2008 Avg	2012 to 2014 Avg	2007 to 2014 Avg
Total Cautions	5.0	4.2	4.4
Total Caution Laps	15.0	15.6	15.4
Average Caution Length (Laps)	3.0	3.8	3.5
First Caution Lap	14.5	9.6	11.0
Last Restart (Laps Remaining)	18.5	17.8	18.0

Detroit's Belle Isle is the only host of a doubleheader in 2015.  Instead of a single 90 lap race on Sunday, fans are treated to a pair of 70 lap races, one on Saturday and one on Sunday.  IndyCar began having doubleheaders in 2013 as a way to increase ticket value for fans and to increase the number of races on its schedule. 

Casual viewers who enjoyed the fabulous final laps of last weekend's Indianapolis 500 will be in for a surprise if they expect similar races in Detroit.  Gone are the 5/8ths of a mile straightaways, 220+ mile per hour laps, and the (relativley) wide, banked turns of the Indianapolis Motor Speedway.  Belle Isle is a prototypical temporary street circuit: tight, twisty, and no runoff room to speak of.  Speeds are much lower here than ovals (pole speed was 111 miles per hour and change), and passes will be much more rare. 

I've never found Detroit's races to be especially entertaining.  They tend to be parade-like, and the only excitement comes two sources: drivers making hopelessly optimistic passing attempts, and seeing which car's pit strategy will be rewarded by the yellows that are caused by the previously mentioned questionable passing attempts.  A layout change last year added one legitimate passing zone by lengthening the straightaway between turn 2 and the new turn 3.  This change improved the quality of the racing substantially, although it still isn't easy to pass.  (Now that I've sufficiently lowered your expectations for this weekend's races, there's a decent chance you'll be pleasantly surprised.  You'll thank me later, I promise.)

In terms of cautions, expect a yellow on the first lap: 3 of the last 4 races have had one.  Detroit's turn 1 and turn 2 are so fast that they are not good passing opportunities.  Drivers are reluctant to leave room for one another since so much time is lost when running double file.  The proximity of the cars to one another on the double file start means that someone will probably wreck there.  If turns 1 and 2 don't have an issue, turn 3 probably will.  Everyone knows that passing is difficult in Detroit, so a driver's best chance to pass cars is during the start of the race when everyone is bunched together.  If one driver decided to get aggressive, an incident might be avoided by other drivers cutting him/her a break.  Unfortunately, everyone wants to be the guy/gal who picks up positions on the first lap.  Carnage ensues.

Strangely, cautions don't seem especially 'clustered' at Detroit.  Since 2007, 7 cautions have occurred within 2 laps of a start or restart, which seems high.  But, there have been 31 cautions in total, meaning only 22% of cautions come within 2 laps of a start or restart.  Evidently a single file restart makes accidents a lot less likely than a double file start.  The other accidents must come from a driver getting frustrated after being unable to pass another car that's slowing him/her down.  Or from the track falling apart.

As usual, the DW12 has reduced the number of cautions in races, although by only about 1/2 caution per race in the case of Detroit. 




Lap Number of the Winner's Pit Stops*

Year	2013 #1	2013 #2	2014 #1	2014 #2
Winner	Conway	Pagenaud	Power	Castroneves
Stop 1	24	20	6	11
Stop 2	53	29	30	33
Stop 3	N/A	55	53	49

*Each cell contains the lap number and track condition (green or yellow) for each of the winner's pit stops.

I'm intrigued that the winners at Detroit have so consistently made 3 pit stops.  I would have expected the high number of cautions to reward the drivers who are willing to take a chance on a 2 stop race.  Evidently the race distance is such that 3 stops have to be made, but drivers have a lot of flexibility about when to make them.  Note that both winners in 2014 made their first stops very early.  It's unusual to see cars make stops when there's so much fuel left in the tank and life in the tires.

I expect some of this flexibility will be gone in 2015.  Engines seem to be making worse fuel mileage on 'twisties' than in 2014, which means that drivers won't be able to make their first pit stops until later in the race.  It will be interesting to see who is brave enough to be the first to pit at Detroit.  As I explained before the Indianapolis 500, drivers who make a pit stop first are often at an advantage strategically, assuming that they won't need to make an extra pit stop.

If you want to get in touch, feel free to leave a comment or send an email to spottersstand@gmail.com.  Follow the blog on Twitter (@spotstandblog) for reminders about new posts.