2015 Barber Motorsports Park Strategy Review

Sunday's race at Barber was easily the best IndyCar race of the still young season.  Long Beach proved that drivers can avoid running into each other, but Barber proved that the DW12 can still put on an entertaining show despite its aero kit upgrades.

I finally gave up on attempting to predict exact caution laps based on prior races, but I noted in the Barber Motorsports Park Pre-Race Strategy Guide that the first 2 laps of the race and restarts in the middle of the race presented elevated chances of yellow flags.  Of course the race went green until lap 20, and both mid-race restarts didn't create an additional caution within 3 laps.  Although it stings a little that these predictions have been so bad, I'm thrilled at the overall lack of yellow flags.

Caution Breakdown for Barber Motorsports Park

Lap	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
1		Yellow 1	Yellow 1		Yellow 1
2		Yellow 1	Yellow 1	Yellow 1	Yellow 1
3			Yellow 1	Yellow 1
4				Yellow 1
5				Yellow 1
6
7
8
9
10
11
12	Yellow 1
13	Yellow 1
14	Yellow 1
15
16
17
18
19
20						Yellow 1
21					Yellow 2	Yellow 1
22					Yellow 2	Yellow 1
23					Yellow 2	Yellow 1
24					Yellow 2
25					Yellow 2
26
27					Yellow 3
28					Yellow 3
29					Yellow 3
30
31					Yellow 4
32					Yellow 4
33
34						Yellow 2
35						Yellow 2
36						Yellow 2
37		Yellow 2				Yellow 2
38		Yellow 2				Yellow 2
39		Yellow 2
40
41		Yellow 3
42		Yellow 3
43		Yellow 3
44		Yellow 3
45
46		Yellow 4
47		Yellow 4
48		Yellow 4
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58		Yellow 5
59		Yellow 5
60		Yellow 5
61		Yellow 5
62
63
64		Yellow 6
65		Yellow 6
66		Yellow 6			Yellow 5
67		Yellow 6	Yellow 2		Yellow 5
68			Yellow 2		Yellow 5
69			Yellow 2		Yellow 5
70			Yellow 2
71			Yellow 2
72			Yellow 2
73			Yellow 2
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86	Yellow 2
87	Yellow 2
88
89
90

Cautions per Year

	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Total Cautions	2	6	2	1	5	2
Total Caution Laps	5	20	10	4	16	9
Average Caution Length (Laps)	2.5	3.3	5.0	4.0	3.2	4.5
First Caution Lap	1	1	13	20	76	20
Last Restart (Laps Remaining)	3	22	16	84	36	39

Drivers did a good job of avoiding yellow flags at Barber.  There were a few instances of contact, but drivers did a nice job of not stalling when they had an incident.  I suspect that both manufacturers have improved their engines' abilities to avoid stalling.  Takuma Sato drove away from his Will Power-induced spin, but the improved stall avoidance has been especially evident in the pits.  At Long Beach, Scott Dixon had to stop after he had already began to leave his pit box to avoid contact with a car entering the pit stall in front of his.  Similar incidents also took place at St. Petersburg and Barber.  Last year, this almost certainly would have resulted in a stall, but this year it hasn't.

There will probably be complaints about the length of the yellows during the race at Barber.  While 9 laps of caution for a piece of debris and a stalled race car seems like a lot, the facts are more complicated.  The series used the yellows to sweep marbles off the track.  The broadcast team described the marbles (little pieces of rubber that fall off of the tires) as 'boulders'.  Although the series should investigate ways to reduce the length of full course yellows, it's worthwhile to spend an extra lap or 2 under caution to have multiple lines available to drivers in the corners.

Lap Number of the Winner's Pit Stops*

Year	2012	2013	2014	2015
Winner	Power	Hunter-Reay	Hunter-Reay	Newgarden
Stop 1	21	26	22	19
Stop 2	41	43	49	35
Stop 3	65	67	N/A**	63

*Each cell contains the lap number and track condition (green or yellow) for each of the winner's pit stops.

**The 2014 race at Barber was shortened by rain, so winner Ryan Hunter-Reay only made 2 pit stops.

Like previous years, a 3 stop strategy was optimal at Barber.  The best finishing driver who made 4 pit stops was Juan Pablo Montoya, and Montoya was forced into an additional stop to repair a damaged front wing.

Will Power miraculously finished 4th after serving a drive through penalty for avoidable contact.  This was after he received a warning for blocking at the start of the race (on teammate Simon Pagenaud, of all people).  I would have expected the warning to calm Power down, but Power has a history of collecting penalties.  If Power cannot repeat as champion in 2015, he will certainly look back at Barber as a race where he left points on the table.

The longest stint made by drivers finishing in the top 10 came from James Hinchcliffe, who went 28 laps on a tank of gas between laps 19 and 48.  It's worth noting that 9 laps of this stint were run under yellow.  In 2013, Will Power ran 31 laps on a tank of fuel while executing a 2 stop strategy.  Although Power was likely saving fuel on his run, it seems like cars are getting worse fuel mileage compared to 2013.  That isn't to say that the engines are worse.  Cars are clearly running faster than they were with the original DW12, so the increased cornering speeds may be responsible for the drop in fuel economy.

Non-Statistical Soapbox

Please check your facts before bashing Francesco Dracone.  A few weeks ago he was incorrectly accused of being out qualified by Milka Duno.  In reality, he only started behind Duno because of a quirk in IndyCar's group qualifying rules.  During the Barber broadcast, the commentators were quick to accuse Dracone of being in the way when there was a long line of cars queued up behind him trying to get by.  They had to correct themselves a few laps later when they realized that Dracone was on the lead lap at the point, and battling those behind him for position.  A car is under zero obligation to move over for cars (s)he is battling with for position.  Later in the race, Dracone did a good job of moving over for the leaders while he was being lapped.  Yes, he's slow, but media members are sacrificing their credibility to collect a few cheap laughs. 


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