2015 St Petersburg Pre Race Strategy Guide

Pit strategy can play a major role in determining who wins a race.  A conveniently timed yellow flag, when coupled with a well-timed pit stop, can vault a driver to the top of the running order.  On the flip side, a yellow flag that is poorly timed with a pit stop can ruin an otherwise great day.

I want to analyze yellow flag and pit stop history at each track to see if trends exist in the timing and/or frequency of cautions.  If trends do exist, a clever strategist might be able to gain his/her driver a few extra positions on the track by pitting at the correct time.

Caution Breakdown for St. Petersburg

Lap	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
1	Yellow 1	Yellow 1	Yellow 1
2	Yellow 1	Yellow 1	Yellow 1
3	Yellow 1		Yellow 1
4
5
6
7			Yellow 2
8			Yellow 2
9			Yellow 2
10
11
12			Yellow 3
13				Yellow 1
14			Yellow 4	Yellow 1
15			Yellow 4	Yellow 1
16				Yellow 1
17
18
19
20				Yellow 2	Yellow 1
21				Yellow 2	Yellow 1
22				Yellow 2	Yellow 1
23				Yellow 2	Yellow 1
24				Yellow 2	Yellow 1
25		Yellow 2		Yellow 2	Yellow 1
26		Yellow 2		Yellow 2
27		Yellow 2		Yellow 2
28		Yellow 2			Yellow 2
29		Yellow 2			Yellow 2
30		Yellow 2			Yellow 2
31					Yellow 2
32
33	Yellow 2
34	Yellow 2
35	Yellow 2
36	Yellow 2
37	Yellow 2
38	Yellow 2
39	Yellow 2		Yellow 5
40			Yellow 5
41			Yellow 5
42			Yellow 5
43
44
45					Yellow 3
46				Yellow 3	Yellow 3
47		Yellow 3		Yellow 3	Yellow 3
48		Yellow 3		Yellow 3	Yellow 3
49		Yellow 3			Yellow 3
50		Yellow 3			Yellow 3
51		Yellow 3			Yellow 3
52		Yellow 3			Yellow 3
53					Yellow 3
54
55	Yellow 3
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65		Yellow 4
66		Yellow 4
67		Yellow 4
68		Yellow 4
69		Yellow 4
70
71
72	Yellow 4
73	Yellow 4
74	Yellow 4	Yellow 5			Yellow 4
75	Yellow 4	Yellow 5			Yellow 4
76	Yellow 4	Yellow 5			Yellow 4	Yellow 1
77	Yellow 4	Yellow 5			Yellow 4	Yellow 1
78					Yellow 4	Yellow 1
79					Yellow 4	Yellow 1
80					Yellow 4	Yellow 1
81	Yellow 5				Yellow 4	Yellow 1
82	Yellow 5				Yellow 4
83	Yellow 5				Yellow 4	Yellow 2
84	Yellow 5					Yellow 2
85	Yellow 5					Yellow 2
86						Yellow 2
87	Yellow 6
88	Yellow 6
89	Yellow 6
90	Yellow 6
91	Yellow 6
92
93
94
95
96
97	Yellow 7
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110

The following laps were run under yellow in at least 50% of the races over the last 6 years:

• 1 and 2
• 25
• 47 and 48
• 74 to 77
• 81
• 83

Based on this data, it might be beneficial for drivers to pit before the leaders start these laps.  A driver who pitted just before a yellow flag (and stayed on the lead lap) is likely to gain positions under the caution as other drivers make pit stops.

I want to add that I'm not convinced that there is something special about these laps that makes them more likely to be run under caution.  The list above may be a racing equivalent of the Wyatt Earp Effect.  The exceptions to this are the first laps of a race, where I believe cautions are more likely to occurr.  Cars race in close proximity at the start of a race, and passing attempts are common.  Small mistakes are magnified as cars race wheel to wheel and drivers have less margin for error than they normally do because there are so many other cars nearby.

Lap Number of the Winner's Pit Stops*

Year	2012	2013	2014
Winner	Castroneves	Hinchcliffe	Power
Stop 1	37	20	22
Stop 2	70	45	52
Stop 3	N/A	74	77

*Each cell contains the lap number and track condition (green or yellow) for each of the winner's pit stops.

IndyCar increased the race distance in 2013 to 110 laps.  These additional laps forced winners to make an additional stop in 2013 and 2014. 

In 2012, Castroneves went 33 laps (Lap 70 -  Lap 37 = 33 laps) on a tank of fuel.  During this run, there were only 3 laps of caution.  It's important to note that the distance that a car can go on fuel may have changed since 2012.  Engine developments may have increased power at the expense of fuel mileage, or they may have increased fuel mileage at the expense of power.

Cautions per Year

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Total Cautions	7	5	5	3	4	2
Total Caution Laps	28	23	13	15	29	10
Average Caution Length (Laps)	4.0	4.6	2.6	5.0	7.3	5.0
First Caution Lap	1	1	1	13	20	76
Last Restart (Laps Remaining)	3	23	58	52	27	24

Caution Averages

	2009 to 2011 Avg	2012 to 2014 Avg	2009 to 2014 Avg
Total Cautions	5.7	3.0	4.3
Total Caution Laps	21.3	18.0	19.7
Average Caution Length (Laps)	3.7	5.8	4.7
First Caution Lap	1.0	36.3	18.7
Last Restart (Laps Remaining)	28.0	34.3	31.2

The arrival of the DW12 in 2012 seems to have reduced the number of cautions in races at St. Petersburg, despite the fact that race distance was increased by 10% from 2013 onward (110 laps instead of the initial 100).

It remains to be seen whether the new aero kits will be as sturdy as the original DW12 bodywork.  If aerodynamic bits fall off when minor contact occurs, expect an increased number of cautions on race day compared to the average cautions since 2012.

In 5 of the last 6 races, the first caution has taken place on or before lap 20.  The winner's pit strategy section already showed that cars can run over 30 laps on a tank of fuel.  This means that teams should expect the first caution to take place before cars would need a pit stop.  This presents a difficult decision to race leaders.  It is advantageous to wait as long as possible to pit because the leader can run faster laps when (s)he is away from other cars.  However, once other cars begin to make their pit stops, the leader can be hurt badly if a caution flag comes out.  In addition to losing the lead when cars slow down for the pace car, the leader must either:

1. Make a pit stop under yellow.  Cars who have already stopped for fuel do not need to pit again.  The former leader will return to the track behind cars that did not stop under the yellow.
2. Keep the lead under yellow but make a pit stop when the race goes back to green.  The leader will have to pit before opening a large gap on the field, and return to the race farther behind the new leader than (s)he would have been had (s)he pitted under yellow.

Neither of these outcomes are desirable, so a leader has a strong incentive to pit soon after other cars begin to make their pit stops.

Regardless of how many cautions there are, it seems likely that the race will end with a long green flag run.  The final restart has taken place with an average of 31 laps to go over the last 6 years.  Teams that focused on creating a setup that is fast over a long run, instead of a setup that's fast for a few laps and then fades will probably be rewarded with good finishes in St. Petersburg.

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