2015 Fontana Pre-Race Strategy Guide

Pit strategy can play a major role in determining who wins a race.  This year, I will analyze yellow flag and pit stop history at each track to see if trends exist in the timing and/or frequency of cautions.  If trends do exist, a clever strategist might be able to gain his/her driver a few extra positions on the track by pitting at the correct time.

Caution Breakdown for Fontana

Lap	2012	2013	2014
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56	Yellow 1
57	Yellow 1
58	Yellow 1
59	Yellow 1
60	Yellow 1
61	Yellow 1
62	Yellow 1
63	Yellow 1
64	Yellow 1
65
66
67
68
69
70
71		Yellow 1
72		Yellow 1
73		Yellow 1
74	Yellow 2	Yellow 1
75	Yellow 2	Yellow 1
76	Yellow 2	Yellow 1
77	Yellow 2	Yellow 1
78	Yellow 2	Yellow 1
79	Yellow 2	Yellow 1
80	Yellow 2	Yellow 1
81	Yellow 2
82	Yellow 2
83	Yellow 2
84	Yellow 2
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101		Yellow 2
102		Yellow 2
103		Yellow 2
104		Yellow 2
105		Yellow 2
106		Yellow 2
107		Yellow 2
108	Yellow 3
109	Yellow 3
110	Yellow 3
111	Yellow 3	Yellow 3
112	Yellow 3	Yellow 3
113	Yellow 3	Yellow 3
114	Yellow 3	Yellow 3
115		Yellow 3
116		Yellow 3
117		Yellow 3
118		Yellow 3
119		Yellow 3
120		Yellow 3
121		Yellow 3
122		Yellow 3
123		Yellow 3
124		Yellow 3
125		Yellow 3
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175			Yellow 1
176			Yellow 1
177			Yellow 1
178			Yellow 1
179			Yellow 1
180			Yellow 1
181			Yellow 1
182	Yellow 4		Yellow 1
183	Yellow 4		Yellow 1
184	Yellow 4		Yellow 1
185	Yellow 4		Yellow 1
186	Yellow 4		Yellow 1
187	Yellow 4
188	Yellow 4
189
190		Yellow 4
191		Yellow 4
192		Yellow 4
193		Yellow 4
194		Yellow 4
195		Yellow 4
196		Yellow 4
197		Yellow 4
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210		Yellow 5
211		Yellow 5
212		Yellow 5
213		Yellow 5
214		Yellow 5
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230	Yellow 5	Yellow 6
231	Yellow 5	Yellow 6
232	Yellow 5	Yellow 6
233	Yellow 5	Yellow 6
234	Yellow 5	Yellow 6
235		Yellow 6
236
237
238		Yellow 7
239		Yellow 7
240		Yellow 7
241	Yellow 6	Yellow 7
242	Yellow 6
243	Yellow 6
244
245
246
247
248
249
250	Yellow 7

 
Cautions at Fontana don't seem to cluster around each other.  This means that drivers should almost always pit under yellow, which potentially allows them to avoid losing a lap to the leader while pitting under green flag conditions.

Cautions per Year

	2012	2013	2014
Total Cautions	7	7	1
Total Caution Laps	43	55	12
Average Caution Length (Laps)	6.1	7.9	12.0
First Caution Lap	56	71	175
Last Restart (Laps Remaining)	7	9	64

 
Caution Averages 

	2012 to 2014 Avg
Total Cautions	5.0
Total Caution Laps	36.7
Average Caution Length (Laps)	8.7
First Caution Lap	100.7
Last Restart (Laps Remaining)	26.7

 
Fontana hosted open wheel races from its opening in 1997 until 2005.  After a 7 year break, IndyCar returned to the track in 2012.  Due to the long gap between IndyCar races, I have excluded races that took place before 2012 from the caution analysis.

Races at Fontana have been a mixed bag.  The 2012 and 2013 races both had 7 cautions, but last year's race had only 1.  Past races have started with a green flag run of at least 55 laps, which is long enough for all cars to have to make at least one green flag pit stop before the 1st yellow.


It will be interesting to see what kind of racing Fontana produces.  I watched a few minutes of practice, and the cars appeared to be able to keep up with one another in the draft.  Drivers weren't running side by side, but it was clear that they were able to draft and pass each other in a way that reminded me of the Indianapolis 500 between 2012 and 2014.

I can't say whether this type of racing will continue once the green flag falls.  The laps that I watched were immediately after a red flag, so all cars had a chance to put on new tires, and most left the pits at the same time.  Tire wear was a major factor during the last oval race at Texas, and I wouldn't be surprised if drivers begin falling back from the lead group after their tires begin to wear out.

The race will start around 1:30PM local time, so temperatures (both air and track) will be very high.  This is in contrast to the last 3 races at Fontana, which were run at night.  The hotter track might exacerbate tire wear, and the warmer air might also cause cars to overheat.  The 2013 race (run in cooler night temperatures in October) had only 9 cars running at the end because several cars suffered heat related engine failure.  I'm pretty sure that cars were allowed to run more robust cooling systems last year at Fontana because of the cooling issues, and I hope the series allows the same change this year.  Scott Dixon suffered overheating issues at the end of this year's Indianapolis 500, and Tony Kanaan's team removed something from a cooling duct during a pit stop at the Texas race.  If the Ganassi team has been having cooling difficulties, they'll probably cause problems at Fontana.

I'm also curious to see what aerodynamic package Chevrolet drivers use during the race.  At Texas, 3 Penske cars (Montoya, Power, and Pagenaud) chose aggressive, low downforce setups by removing the 'loops' from both rear wheel guards on their cars for the race.  This configuration was fast when running in clean air, but struggled mightily when following another car, even a slower car that was a lap down.  Helio Castroneves split the difference and opted to run with a single 'loop' on his right rear wheel guard.  Castroneves finished 3rd in Texas, but was no match for either Scott Dixon or Tony Kanaan.  Dixon, Kanaan, and most other Chevrolets used 'loops' over both rear wheel guards.  Dixon and Kanaan were noticeably better than all of the Penske cars in traffic.

At the end of the second practice session at Fontana on Friday, most Chevrolet cars ran with a single 'loop' over the left rear wheel guard.  The exception to this rule was Simon Pagenaud, who ran with a single loop over his right rear wheel guard.  Polesitter Pagenaud used no 'loops' in qualifying, but is to be expected since drivers make single car runs and have the benefit of clean air for the entire qualifying session.  I'm looking forward to seeing which aerodynamic settings are preferred, and which are the most effective.  The outcome of the race may be heavily influenced by setup decisions that teams make well before the race begins.

It's worth noting that the Texas and Fontana tracks are not identical.  Texas is 1.5 miles long and has 24 degrees of banking in the corners, while Fontana is 2 miles long with 14 degrees of banking in the turns.  Fontana's corners also have seams between lanes of asphalt that were laid down when the track was paved.  In the past, these seams have severely disrupted cars in the corners, and drivers who crossed them risked crashing.  I expect drivers will try to avoid running over the seams during the race.

Lap Number of the Winner's Pit Stops*

Year	2013	2014
Winner	Power	Kanaan
Stop 1	38	36
Stop 2	72	72
Stop 3	102	104
Stop 4	113	141
Stop 5	114	178
Stop 6	119	218
Stop 7	160	N/A
Stop 8	193	N/A
Stop 9	212	N/A
Stop 10	231	N/A

 
On ovals, cautions usually have a major influence on the number of pit stops a driver makes in the race.  Will Power made 10 pit stops in 2013, and 8 of them were made under yellow.  Tony Kanaan made only 6 stops on his way to victory in 2014, and 5 of those were under green.  Look for drivers to pit when most cautions come out.

Enjoy the race.

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