2015 Barber Motorsports Park Pre-Race Strategy Guide

Pit strategy can play a major role in determining who wins a race.  This year I will analyze yellow flag and pit stop history at each track to see if trends exist in the timing and/or frequency of cautions.  If trends do exist, a clever strategist might be able to gain his/her driver a few extra positions on the track by pitting at the correct time.

Caution Breakdown for Barber Motorsports Park

Lap	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
1		Yellow 1	Yellow 1		Yellow 1
2		Yellow 1	Yellow 1	Yellow 1	Yellow 1
3			Yellow 1	Yellow 1
4				Yellow 1
5				Yellow 1
6
7
8
9
10
11
12	Yellow 1
13	Yellow 1
14	Yellow 1
15
16
17
18
19
20
21					Yellow 2
22					Yellow 2
23					Yellow 2
24					Yellow 2
25					Yellow 2
26
27					Yellow 3
28					Yellow 3
29					Yellow 3
30
31					Yellow 4
32					Yellow 4
33
34
35
36
37		Yellow 2
38		Yellow 2
39		Yellow 2
40
41		Yellow 3
42		Yellow 3
43		Yellow 3
44		Yellow 3
45
46		Yellow 4
47		Yellow 4
48		Yellow 4
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58		Yellow 5
59		Yellow 5
60		Yellow 5
61		Yellow 5
62
63
64		Yellow 6
65		Yellow 6
66		Yellow 6			Yellow 5
67		Yellow 6	Yellow 2		Yellow 5
68			Yellow 2		Yellow 5
69			Yellow 2		Yellow 5
70			Yellow 2
71			Yellow 2
72			Yellow 2
73			Yellow 2
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86	Yellow 2
87	Yellow 2
88
89
90

Although specific laps do not appear to have a higher chance than others of being run under caution, the chart above seems to indicate that there are two situations at Barber where the chance of a caution is elevated.

The first is during the first two laps of a race.  4 of 5 races at Barber have had a caution on either lap 1 or 2. 

Strangely, even though an early caution is likely, cautions after the first 2 laps are relatively rare.  3 of the 5 races have had 2 or fewer cautions.

Although mid race cautions are unlikely, if one does occur, there is a good chance more will follow.  Since 2010, 5 of 11 cautions that occurred after lap 2 and had a restart (the race did not end under that caution) were followed by another caution within 3 laps.

Lap Number of the Winner's Pit Stops*

Year	2012	2013	2014
Winner	Power	Hunter-Reay	Hunter-Reay
Stop 1	21	26	22
Stop 2	41	43	49
Stop 3	65	67	N/A**

*Each cell contains the lap number and track condition (green or yellow) for each of the winner's pit stops.

**The 2014 race at Barber was shortened by rain, so winner Ryan Hunter-Reay only made 2 pit stops.

In 2013, Will Power made his first pit stop on lap 31 while executing a 2 stop pit strategy that resulted in a 5th place finish.  During this run, there were only 4 laps of caution, so expect cars to be able to go 30 laps on a tank of fuel (cars make several parade laps before the start of the race, so they should be able to go farther on a tank of fuel after the opening stint of the race).

In 2013 Power was the highest finishing car that used a 2 stop pit strategy.  I suspect that tire wear prevented Power from climbing higher than 5th: Barber's many medium and high speed corners wear tires out, so lap times fall off significantly as a driver puts more laps on a set of tires.  The high tire wear at Barber means that a 3 stop strategy is probably the way to go.

Cautions per Year

	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Total Cautions	2	6	2	1	5
Total Caution Laps	5	20	10	4	16
Average Caution Length (Laps)	2.5	3.3	5.0	4.0	3.2
First Caution Lap	1	1	13	20	76
Last Restart (Laps Remaining)	3	22	16	84	36

Caution Averages

	2010 to 2011 Avg	2012 to 2014 Avg	2010 to 2014 Avg
Total Cautions	4.0	2.7	3.2
Total Caution Laps	12.5	10.0	11.0
Average Caution Length (Laps)	2.9	4.1	3.6
First Caution Lap	1.0	36.3	22.2
Last Restart (Laps Remaining)	12.5	45.3	32.2

Like at St. Petersburg, the arrival of the DW12 chassis in 2012 reduced the average number of cautions in races at Barber by over 1 per race, and this number is likely understated.  Wet races usually have more cautions than dry races, and the 2014 race started with a wet track.  The 5 cautions in 2014 were probably more than there would have been on a dry track.

Although the first 2 races of the season had more cautions than were ideal, I'm cautiously optimistic that the number of cautions will stay near pre-aero kit DW12 levels.  I expect Chevrolet will have its rabbit ears tethered to its cars this week, which should reduce the chances of debris cautions.  Drivers also seem to have learned their lesson about avoiding contact: there was only 1 debris caution caused by contact at Long Beach.

Lastly, I expect that even minor front wing damage will force drivers to pit for a replacement wing.  Barber features many high speed corners that put a premium on downforce, so look for pit stops from any driver who 'gets his nose dirty'.

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