2015 IndyCar Preseason Analysis - Data Limits

While building models to predict how many points the IndyCar champion will score in 2015, I restricted the initial data to IRL/IndyCar champions since 2005.  There were several reasons for this.

1. 2005 was the first year that the IRL dropped its oval-only schedule and began racing on road courses.  Although the mix of road course and oval races has varied since 2005, both types of track have been on the schedule each year since 2005.
2. IndyCar’s point system has not undergone significant changes since 1998, so comparing points between years is an apples-to-apples comparison.  That’s not to say that the points system has undergone no changes since 1998: it has (changes include paying points for leading a lap, leading the most laps, and qualifying position at the Indianapolis 500 and Iowa Speedway), but the changes were small when compared to end-of-year totals.
3. CART/Champ Car champions are excluded because that series used a different points system than IndyCar’s.  Comparing the CART champion’s points to the IndyCar champion’s points reveals nothing since a win (or any other finishing position) in each series was not worth the same number of points.  
4. Furthermore, the different points system in CART/Champ Car provided different incentives to drivers who were willing to race for points.  Specifically, CART’s point system provided less of an incentive to win than IndyCar’s did.  A second place finish in CART was worth 27 points, or 87% of the 31 points a win was worth.  Contrast this to IndyCar, where a second place finish provides only 80% of the value of a win (40 points vs. 50 points).  A driver concerned with points in CART might have been content to settle for second.  The same driver in the same situation in IndyCar might have been willing to risk an accident and attempt a pass for the lead to earn the extra 7% points advantage over his nearest rival. 
   
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