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Monday, February 16, 2015

2015 IndyCar Preseason Analysis – Champion Points/Race Model

Note: Some posts, like this one, will rely heavily on data.  I've made data available in a Google Spreadsheet called 2015 IndyCar Preseason Analysis - Champion Points/Race Model.

This post explains the Champion Points/Race model I created in an attempt to predict how many points the 2015 IndyCar champion will score.  I analyze the results of this model in this post: 2015 IndyCar Preseason Analysis - Who Should Race for Points in 2015? 

Before beginning, feel free to take a look at the IndyCar points system (Chart 1 - IndyCar Points).  This system has remained largely unchanged since its debut in 1998.  The points earned by each finishing position are listed.  
Chart 1 - IndyCar Points


Finish PositionPoints AwardedFinish PositionPoints Awarded
1501119
2401218
3351317
4321416
5301515
6281614
7261713
82418-2412
92225+10
1020


 I limited data to IRL/IndyCar champions since 2005 (Chart 2 - Champion's Points).  I also removed qualifying points that were awarded at Indianapolis and Iowa.  I provide reasons for these data limits in my data limits post.


Chart 2 - Champion's Points

YearChampion’s PointsYearChampion’s Points
20056282011573
20064752012456
20076372013574
20086462014635
2009616Avg589
2010602


IndyCar champions have scored a wide range of points since 2005, ranging from Scott Dixon’s high of 646 points in 2008 to Ryan Hunter-Reay’s low of 458 points in 2012.  These numbers don’t have much of a pattern, and by themselves don’t reveal much about an IndyCar champion.  If Hunter-Reay scored almost 30% fewer points than Dixon, and still managed to win the championship, these numbers aren’t very useful.  Points are unhelpful because the number of races on the IndyCar schedule varies from year to year.  A much more meaningful statistic is the average points the champion scored in each race (champion points/race, shown in Chart 3 - Champion Points/Race).  

Chart 3 - Champion Points/Race

YearPoints/RaceYearPoints/Race
200536.9201135.8
200633.9201230.4
200737.5201330.2
200838201430.2
200936.2Avg34.5
201035.4


IndyCar champions have scored between 38.0 points per race and 30.2 points per race.  An interesting trend exists in the data, and 'Graph 1 - Champion Points/Race' makes the trend a bit easier to see.  (I'm still figuring out how best to display graphs, so Graph 1 doesn't have years listed on the X-axis.  It covers 2005 to 2014.)



Since 2012, IndyCar champions have scored fewer points per race than they did from 2005 to 2011 (see Chart 4 and Chart 5).  It is possible that the drop in champion points/race can be attributed to the arrival of the new Dallara DW12 chassis in 2012 to replace the old Dallara chassis.  Public opinion in the IndyCar paddock is that the DW12 leveled the playing field between teams - the teams with more money had built up better knowledge of the old chassis, and lost that advantage when the DW12 arrived.  Average champion points/race has fallen by over 17% since the introduction of the DW12.  Given the differences in champion points/race before and after the DW12, I believe the 2015 IndyCar champion will score an average of 30.3 points per race.

Chart 4 - Champion Points/Race 2005 - 2011

Year2005200620072008200920102011Avg
Points/Race36.933.937.53836.235.435.836.3

Chart 5 - Champion Points/Race 2012 - 2014

Year201220132014Avg
Points/Race30.430.230.230.3

The 2015 IndyCar schedule currently has 16 rounds (the Brazil race has been cancelled without a replacement race as of now).  Two of these races will award double points (Indianapolis 500 and Sonoma), so the schedule effectively contains 18 races.  Earning 30.3 points per race over 18 races will net the IndyCar champion 545.4 points at the end of the year, excluding points for qualifying at the Indianapolis 500.  
I’d like to end with a disclaimer: this model assumes that there will be little performance difference between the Chevrolet and Honda engines and aero kits that will debut in 2015.  If one manufacturer outperforms the other (especially if Honda is superior to Chevrolet), the champion will probably score more than 30.3 points/race.

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