2015 Season Preview - Rookies

Welcome to the Spotters' Stand 2015 IndyCar Season Preview series.  I'll eventually have previews for all drivers on the entry list for the first round at St Petersburg (plus Ed Carpenter).  Previews for drivers with IndyCar experience will be more statistics driven, but rookies by definition don't have IndyCar experience.  This post won't have quite as much data as others covering drivers with IndyCar experience.

All rookies have to adapt to a number of new things during their first season in IndyCar.  Primarily, they will have to drive a car substantially faster than they've raced in the past Although the actual differences vary by track, IndyCar average speeds in qualifying last year were 10 MPH to 15 MPH faster on road and street courses compared to the Indy Lights car.  The speed difference on ovals was even more pronounced: the big cars were over 25 MPH faster at the short, flat Milwaukee Mile, and over 40 MPH faster at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval than the Indy Lights cars in 2014.  Rookies will also be racing against a field that is both larger and more talented than any they've ever seen.  Last but not least, rookies will have to make pit stops, which are not required in most development series.

The overall season strategy should be similar for all rookies: maximize track time.  Each team's goal should be for their car to be first on track in practice, and the last car off track.  This may cost the team a set of tires on race day and take a bit of zip out of engines, but this will pay long term dividends as rookies will be more experienced for 2016.

I'd also make strategy gambles whenever possible.  Any tricks these drivers can pick up by racing with championship contenders at the front of the field (even if they are there because of pit strategy) will be valuable later in their careers, and later in 2015.

Gabby Chaves

Chaves moves up to IndyCar after winning the Indy Lights (the development series just below IndyCar) championship in 2014.  He had the most podiums (11) of any Lights driver in 2014, and his four wins were tied with one other driver for best in the series. 

At a quick glance, these stats seem to indicate that Chaves is ready for a drive in the big cars.  A closer look reveals that 2014 was a terrible year for Indy Lights.  Only 8 drivers started every race.  Podiums usually indicate that a driver had an impressive day, but here they suggest that he was better than only a bit more than half the field.  The largest Lights field in 2014 had 12 cars.  (Mercifully, a new car will be used in Indy Lights in 2015, and the car count appears to be well above last year’s numbers.)

None of this is an indictment of Chaves – he can only beat drivers he races against.  But I am concerned that last year’s Lights field did not give him enough of a challenge.

Potential Weakness: Inexperience Developing a Car

Chaves will be driving for the single car Bryan Herta Autosport team.  All other rookies will have teammates to learn from and guide the team, but Chaves will not have that luxury.  He'll have full responsibility for providing accurate feedback to his team's engineers regarding setup changes.  If his inexperience leads to bad feedback, the team's setup could be wrong for several races until they realize the problem.  2015 rules also allow teams the option of running various aerodynamic pieces from their manufacturer's aero kit.  Chaves has no experience evaluating different aerodynamic or engine components so he'll have to figure that out on the fly.

Recommended Strategy: Keep it Simple

It will be important that the team not overwhelm Chaves with too many changes.  He's driving a new car while potentially evaluating setup changes, body kit changes, and engine component/mapping changes.  Focusing on one thing at a time will prevent Chaves from being distracted with constant changes.

Stefano Coletti   
Coletti has spent the last 4 years racing in GP2, the top level development series for Formula 1.  His best points finish was 5th in 2013, and he finished 6th in points in 2014.  Coletti earned 8 wins during his time in GP2, but his career seemed to stall out just short of F1. 

Potential Weakness: Inexperience on North American Tracks
Coletti has never raced in America (according to Wikipedia, which is questionable, I know).  In addition to learning road courses on which he's never raced, Coletti will also have to adapt to American street courses that have zeromarginforerror, and most significantly, ovals.  Unless your name is Nigel Mansell, oval racing is a skill that is acquired over several years and often costs hundreds of thousands of dollars in crash damage.

Recommended Strategy: Listen to Bourdais
Coletti is fortunate that he can rely on teammate Sebastien Bourdais for tips on setup and ovals.  A driver with Bourdais' experience should be able to provide feedback to keep the team on the correct setup and development paths.  Bourdais should also have useful pointers for driving on ovals, since Bourdais also has a road and street course background.

Francesco Dracone

Note: Dracone has only been confirmed for the first 4 races of 2015
I want to correct some incorrect information that has been circulated about Dracone.  He was NOT outqualified by Milka Duno in 2010.  He had to start behind Duno because of IndyCar's group qualifying rules at Sonoma, but Dracone was faster than Duno. 

Specifically, there were 25 cars entered in the race, so there were 13 cars in qualifying group 1 (including Dracone) and 12 cars in qualifying group 2 (including Duno).  By rule, all group 1 cars receive odd numbered starting positions and all group 2 cars receive even numbered starting positions.  Regardless of speed, the slowest car in group 1 had to start 25th, while the slowest car in group 2 had to start 24th.

Dracone joins Dale Coyne’s team in 2015, replacing Justin Wilson.  Dracone’s 2 IndyCar starts both came in 2010 with the small Conquest team.  At Mid-Ohio, Dracone qualified with a 1:11.4 lap.  The next slowest driver was rookie Jay Howard with a lap of 1:09.5.  That’s almost 2 seconds worse than Howard, and 2 seconds per lap is an eternity for a racecar driver.  Dracone finished 3 laps back in 22^nd place.  The only other driver who was on track at the end of the race and finished behind him was noted IndyCar moving chicane Milka Duno.

Dracone’s other race, at Sonoma, was no better.  Again, Dracone’s best qualifying lap of 1:21.2 was better than only Milka Duno.  The next fastest qualifier was Danica Patrick (1:18.4), a driver who was never known to be especially quick on road and street courses.  Dracone retired after 71 laps in 20^th place.

Weaknesses: Big shoes to fill

Replacing Justin Wilson is a tall order, both literally and figuratively (Wilson is 6 feet, 2 inches tall).  Wilson was able to achieve amazing results for Coyne’s small team.  Given Dracone’s performance in his previous starts, I do not expect this trend to continue.

Recommended Strategy: Be considerate when getting lapped

Nothing makes leaders of a race angrier than when a car they’re trying to lap holds them up.  Dracone can avoid drawing the ire of other drivers by moving off line in corners to allow other cars by, or better yet, lifting off the gas on the straights so that drivers won’t have to pass him in the corners.  If nothing else, be predictable.  Cutting the leader off at the last second as the leader is lapping you will attract the wrong kind of attention from Race Control.

Sage Karam

Note: Karam has only been confirmed for the first race of the season.

Karam’s last full season of racing was in 2013, when he won the Indy Lights championship.  After writing Chaves’ season preview, I looked at the 2013 Indy Lights season and realized that the 2013 Indy Lights field was somehow worse than 2014.  Only 6 cars competed in every race, and the average field size was lower in 2013 than it was in 2014.  Karam’s numbers weren’t bad, but 3 wins and 9 podiums aren’t very impressive against fields this small.

Karam spent 2014 in an awkward holding pattern.  He had signed a contract with Chip Ganassi, but never received a full season ride in a series.  He made 4 starts in one of Ganassi’s Daytona Prototypes, and earned a best finish of 2^nd while co-driving with Scott Pruett at Indianapolis.  Karam’s most impressive result of 2014 was at the Indianapolis 500, his only IndyCar start.  Despite starting 31^st, he patiently worked his way up to 9^th by the end of the race, a drive that should have earned him Rookie of the Year honors at The Speedway.  He also showed good speed at this year’s Rolex 24 at Daytona, again driving a Ganassi DP.

I’m not concerned about Karam’s readiness for IndyCar.  He has impressed in both prototypes and IndyCars last year.  After accounting for the fact that Karam will have much better equipment than the other 2015 rookies, it would be disappointing if he didn’t win the season long Rookie of the Year award, assuming he competes in the full season.

Potential Weakness: Lack of Recent Open Wheel Experience

With the exception of the 2014 Indianapolis 500 and preseason testing in 2015, Karam hasn't raced an open wheel car since 2013.  There's a (probably small) chance Karam will need a few races to knock the rust off. 

Recommended Strategy: Listen to Your Teammates
In addition to having the best equipment of all rookies, Karam also has the best teammates.  Scott Dixon, Tony Kanaan, and Charlie Kimball all have many years of experience in IndyCar.  They'll be able to share data, driving tips, and setup information with Karam as he learns how to race IndyCars.

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