Winning the championship will require an incredible year - probably 4 wins and three other finishes of 2nd or 3rd, in addition to minimizing bad days, but these drivers are up to the challenge. They are the best that IndyCar has to offer, and I expect one of these 3 to end 2015 as the IndyCar champion.
Will Power
| Ovals | Road | Street | |||||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Average start position | 8.6 | 2.7 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 12.9 |
| Average finish position | 19 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 14.8 | 5.4 |
Projected Average Finish Rank: 4th
Power finally won an IndyCar championship in 2014 after several years of near misses. Power is quick in qualifying - since 2012 he has the best average starting position on all types of tracks combined, as well as ovals and road courses. Power's 'weakness' is street course qualifying, where he has the 3rd best average starting position among 2015 drivers. His strong results on road and street tracks gives him the best average finish on road courses and the third best average finish on street courses since 2012.
In 2014 he finally figured out ovals, posting an impressive average oval finish of 7.3. This growth is especially impressive when compared to his 2012 average oval finish of 19. The predicted points model likely underestimates the points Power will score in 2015 because it weights each year evenly. This is appropriate for most drivers, but not for Power. He has an excellent chance to repeat as champion in 2015.
Potential Weakness: Penalties
Power amassed five penalties in 2014: hitting pit equipment, contact, blocking, and speeding (twice). Although hitting pit equipment may not have been his fault, the other 4 penalties were. Power would do well to eliminate these from his 2015 season.
Recommended Strategy: Calm down
Champions must minimize bad finishes. Risking a drive through penalty to steal an extra tenth of a second while entering the pits seems like a poor tradeoff for a driver competing for a championship. Better to give up a spot here and there instead of getting penalties in 1 of every 3 races.
Scott Dixon
| Oval | Road | Street | |||||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Average start position | 12.6 | 14.5 | 8.3 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 9.3 |
| Average finish position | 7.6 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 8 | 5 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 10 |
Projected Average Finish Rank: 2nd
Dixon is still the best all around driver in IndyCar. He has the third best average finish on road courses and street courses, and the second best average finish overall since 2012. However, Will Power's improved finishes on ovals mean he's giving Dixon a run for his money. I'm not ready to give Power the title yet because I think Dixon's still a bit better on ovals. But not by much.
In terms of the 2015 championship, Dixon no longer has any margin. He can't count on scoring more points than Power on ovals, which means Dixon may need to turn up the aggression ever so slightly.
Potential Weakness: First Half of the Season
Dixon has been dreadful in the first half of the season for each of the last 2 years. His averages of 24.5 and 23.3 points per race in the first half of 2013 and 2014 respectively would have put Dixon around 7th in the final point standings if they had been season long averages. Fortunately, they weren't. A strong second half average of 35.6 points per race was enough to earn Dixon the championship in 2013, but 34.3 wasn't enough to overcome Power or Helio Castroneves in 2014.
Team owner Chip Ganassi was frustrated enough with Honda's engines in 2013 that he switched to Chevrolet in 2014. It's possible that Dixon's issues in both years were engine related. If Dixon's first half troubles persist in 2015, another monster second half of the season will be required for Dixon to earn his 4th series championship.
Recommended Strategy: Forget the First Half of 2014
After race 10 at Houston last year, Dixon's worst finish was 7. That stretch included an unbelievable 22nd to 1st race at Mid Ohio. If Dixon's racing luck improves even slightly in 2015, he'll challenge for the championship.
Simon Pagenaud
| Oval | Road | Street | |||||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Average start position | 16.8 | 13.7 | 10.3 | 7.3 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 9 | 10.7 | 6.9 |
| Average finish position | 11 | 9.7 | 10 | 5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 10.1 |
Projected Average Finish Rank: 1st
I had always been impressed with Pagenaud's efforts with Schmidt Peterson Motorsports, but after looking at his finishing averages, I think I should have been more impressed. Since 2012, Pagenaud has the second best road course and street course average finishes, and the third best overall average finishing position among active drivers. All of this was while driving for a team that simply did not have the same resources that the most well-funded teams had.
Roger Penske decided to give Pagenaud a ride in 2015, and I am very excited to see how he does in the best equipment. Pagenaud's skill on the twisty tracks means he'll be a threat to win more often than not.
Potential Weakness: Ovals
Pagenaud's best average finish on ovals over a season was 9.7 in 2013. I expect a Penske car will improve his average finish by at least 2 spots on ovals, but that may not be enough to win a championship. Pagenaud may need a year to learn how to compete with the best oval drivers in the series. Then again, if he dominates the road and street courses, his lack of experience at the front of the pack on ovals may not matter.
Recommended Strategy: Evaluate the Season After Texas
If Pagenaud has great finishes on road and street courses in the first part of the season, it may be worthwhile to limit the points he loses on ovals with conservative strategies. The team can use higher downforce setups to increase the car's stability at the expense of speed. This will make oval wins more difficult, but make the car easier to manage.
On the other hand, if Pagenaud has a few bad finishes during the first part of the season, it may be worthwhile to get Pagenaud as many laps on ovals as possible. This may cost the team a set of tires during the race, or put more miles on an engine, but the extra experience on ovals would pay great dividends if Pagenaud is comfortable enough on ovals to make a legitimate championship run in 2016.
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