Before the 2015 season, I predicted that the 2015 champion would have 4 wins, 3 podium finishes that weren't wins (2nd or 3rd place), and 2 finishes of 4th or 5th. I also predicted that the 2015 IndyCar champion will score 30.3 points per race. Keep in mind that there are 2 double points races in 2015 (Indianapolis 500 and Sonoma). Although the 2015 season has 16 races, double points races count as 2 when discussing 'wins' and 'points/race,' so the 2015 season effectively has 18 races.
Each driver's review will have the following:
- Current Points Rank: driver's position in the point standings
- Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: How many races the driver has won, how many races the driver has finished 2nd or 3rd, how many races the driver has finished 4th or 5th
- Current 2015 Points/Race: Average points the driver has scored at each race
- Kyle's preseason classification: How I classified driver before the start of the 2015 season. One of either championship contender, dark horse championship threat, threat for multiple wins, potential winner, long shot, or rookie
- Performance level: How I feel driver is performing, relative to preseason expectations
- Driver's average finishes on ovals, road courses, and street courses by year
Juan Pablo Montoya
Current Points Rank: 1
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 3, 2, 2
Current 2015 Points/Race: 34
Kyle's preseason classification: Threat for multiple wins
Performance level: Above expectations
| Oval | Road | Street | ||||
| Year | 2014 | 2015 | 2014 | 2015 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Average Start Position | 6.5 | 10 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 13.4 | 2.6 |
| Average Finish Position | 5.2 | 2.5 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 11.3 | 6.2 |
Montoya has already had an excellent season. Most importantly, he won his 2nd Indianapolis 500. In addition to being the biggest race of the year, it also paid double points toward the 2015 championship, so it effectively counts as 2 wins. Montoya's win in the season opener in St. Petersburg also showed that he has made significant improvements to his street course game. Although he hasn't won on a road course (yet), it wouldn't be a surprise to see him win on one before the season ends.
Montoya's championship lead isn't just because of his 3 effective wins. Before the season, I noted that his poor qualifying pace on twisties would make a championship run very difficult. Montoya has addressed this issue: his average qualifying position on road courses has improved by nearly 5 positions, and his average qualifying position on street courses has improved by an unbelievable 10.8 positions. I suspect that the dramatic improvements in his qualifying pace on twisties have allowed him to earn much better average finishes on those tracks (up 6 spots on road courses compared to 2014, and up 4.9 positions on street tracks).
2015 is Montoya's championship to lose. He's 27 points ahead of Will Power, and 45 points ahead of Scott Dixon. Considering that 4 of the last 7 effective races are on ovals, I don't think Power will be able to overcome his 27 point gap to Montoya. I still think that Dixon is the best all around driver in IndyCar (because he wins plenty of races and finishes well when he doesn't win), but 45 points will probably be too big of a hill for him to climb.
Will Power
Current Points Rank: 2
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 1, 2, 3
Current 2015 Points/Race: 31.5
Kyle's preseason classification: Championship contender
Performance level: Meeting expectations
| Oval | Road | Street | ||||||||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Average Start Position | 8.6 | 2.7 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 12.9 | 4.6 |
| Average Finish Position | 19 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 7.3 | 4 | 5.3 | 14.8 | 5.4 | 9.6 |
I fear that Power will look back on 2015 as the year that got away, even more so than his 3 point loss to Ryan Hunter-Reay in 2012. Juan Pablo Montoya passed Power during the final cycle of pit stops in St. Petersburg and went on to win, finishing .993 seconds ahead of Power, who finished in 2nd place. Montoya passed Power with 4 laps to go in the Indianapolis 500 and finished .1046 seconds ahead of Power, who finished 2nd again. Had Power finished a total of 1.1 seconds ahead of where he did in each of those 2 races, he would have 4 effective wins and be leading the 2015 championship standings by 33 points over Montoya and 48 points over Scott Dixon.
That's not to say that Power is having a bad year: most drivers would be thrilled with his results. But I suspect that Power isn't satisfied with his 2015 results, especially with his street course performance, where his average finish ranks 7th out of 18 drivers who have started every race in 2015.
The 2014 champion will have a challenging but not impossible path to defending his first IndyCar title. Of the 7 effective races remaining, 4 take place on ovals. Power has undoubtedly made substantial improvements to his pace on ovals, but he doesn't seem to be able to find that extra hundredth of a second during a lap like he can on a twisty track. It will be a struggle to overcome a 27 point deficit to Montoya when over half of the remaining races are on ovals, although a win at the season finale in Sonoma, which pays double points, would certainly help his cause.
Scott Dixon
Current Points Rank: 3
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 2, 1, 2
Current 2015 Points/Race: 29.9
Kyle's preseason classification: Championship contender
Performance level: Meeting expectations
| Oval | Road | Street | ||||||||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Average Start Position | 12.6 | 14.5 | 8.3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.4 |
| Average Finish Position | 7.6 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 2.5 | 5.3 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 10 | 9.8 |
Dixon's 2 wins in 2015 have already matched his season long win totals in 2011, 2012, and 2014. His average finishes also look strong. Although finishes of 15th and 20th pulled his street course average finish down to 9.8, it's likely that his road course finish will improve because Dixon is quite good at the road courses that remain on the 2015 schedule. Dixon has owned Mid-Ohio by winning 5 races in his 8 starts there, and also has 2 wins and 3 other top 5 finishes at Sonoma.
Don't think that his performance rating of 'meeting expectations' means that I take Dixon for granted. These ratings are given relative to each driver's personal curve, and history has taught me to expect great things from Scott Dixon.
Dixon will need some second-half-of-the-season magic to claim his 4th series title. The bad news is that he will have to overcome point deficits to 2 fabulous Penske drivers. The good news is that among drivers active in 2015, Dixon has scored the most points per race between 2012 and 2014 at the tracks that remain on the 2015 schedule. Montoya and Power will need to bring their 'A-game' to hold off Dixon in 2015.
Helio CastronevesDon't think that his performance rating of 'meeting expectations' means that I take Dixon for granted. These ratings are given relative to each driver's personal curve, and history has taught me to expect great things from Scott Dixon.
Dixon will need some second-half-of-the-season magic to claim his 4th series title. The bad news is that he will have to overcome point deficits to 2 fabulous Penske drivers. The good news is that among drivers active in 2015, Dixon has scored the most points per race between 2012 and 2014 at the tracks that remain on the 2015 schedule. Montoya and Power will need to bring their 'A-game' to hold off Dixon in 2015.
Current Points Rank: 4
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 4, 1
Current 2015 Points/Race: 29.3
Kyle's preseason classification: Dark horse championship threat
Performance level: Meeting expectations
| Oval | Road | Street | ||||||||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Average Start Position | 8.8 | 10 | 6.2 | 4 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 2.7 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 3.2 |
| Average Finish Position | 6.8 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 14.8 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 8 | 6.8 |
Castroneves is once again the model of consistency in IndyCar. After a very consistent 2014, he has somehow managed to improve his average finish at each track type in 2015 relative to his end of 2014 average finishes.
As is the case with Will Power and Scott Dixon, most drivers would be thrilled to have Helio Castroneves' 2015 results. However, drivers at Penske and Ganassi are held to a higher standard, so I must say his 2015 performance is meeting the expectations that have been set by his performance in previous years.
Unfortunately, Castroneves has yet to visit victory lane in 2015. I observed in my season preview that he has only more than 1 victory in a season once since 2011. The difficulty Castroneves has had in finding victory lane gave him only an outside chance at a championship this year. For a driver to win the championship with only 1 or 2 wins, (s)he would need to have top 10 finishes at all but maybe one race. Castroneves finished 15th at Barber and 19th at race #2 in Detroit, so it seems that his first IndyCar championship is once again (and sadly) out of reach.
Graham Rahal
Current Points Rank: 5
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 3, 1
Current 2015 Points/Race: 25.7
Kyle's preseason classification: Long Shot
Performance level: Above expectations
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 3, 1
Current 2015 Points/Race: 25.7
Kyle's preseason classification: Long Shot
Performance level: Above expectations
| Oval | Road | Street | ||||||||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Average Start Position | 12.8 | 18.5 | 15.7 | 11.5 | 14 | 17 | 12.8 | 12 | 11.4 | 17.5 | 14.4 | 10.2 |
| Average Finish Position | 7.8 | 16.7 | 17.3 | 10 | 6.7 | 16.7 | 15.8 | 4 | 15.6 | 13 | 12.9 | 11.4 |
Graham Rahal has defied expectations in 2015. I didn't think much of his chances to place high in the point standings in 2015, and so far he has proved me wrong by earning 3 podium finishes and one 5th place finish. Rahal has overcome several challenges on his way to his current position of 5th place in the standings, the most obvious of which is Honda's well-documented performance issues. Additionally, he drives for 1 of the 2 single car teams on the IndyCar grid in 2015. This limits the amount of data the team can collect and analyze at the track. Rahal has had to be accurate with his feedback on aero-kit performance and setup changes because incorrect information might lead the team down a dead end, costing them performance relative to other Honda teams that avoid those dead ends. The final challenge Rahal faced coming into 2015 was a lack of testing. Honda nominated Andretti Autosport to perform most of its preseason testing, meaning that its drivers had much more track time than Rahal did. This lack of track time should have theoretically put Rahal at a disadvantage, especially relative to Andretti Autosport's 3 drivers.
Rahal's most impressive statistic in 2015 has been his performance on road courses. His average road course finish of 4th would be impressive even for a Chevrolet driver. His road course performance is even more impressive when compared to his average road course starting position of 12th. Rahal is averaging an improvement of 8 spots during each race on a road course.
I'll be curious to see if Rahal's performance continues, or if other Honda drivers begin to catch up to Rahal's pace. I suspect as other Honda teams learn more, Rahal's advantage will shrink. Regardless of whether or not that happens, Rahal and his team should hold their heads high knowing that they played a vital part in keeping Honda from getting totally embarrassed by Chevrolet. Being 'first in class' this far into the season is quite an accomplishment, but I'm even more impressed at the drivers he is beating in the standings like Tony Kanaan, Simon Pagenaud, and Ryan Hunter-Reay.
Sebastien Bourdais
Current Points Rank: 6
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 1, 0, 2
Current 2015 Points/Race: 24.9
Kyle's preseason classification: Potential winner
Performance level: Meeting expectations
On the right day, Bourdais is capable of being the fastest man on any twisty, especially in qualifications. His worst starting spot on a twisty this year has been 9th (Long Beach). Bourdais has improved his average finish on street tracks from 9.9 in 2014 to 6.4 in 2015. His best moment of 2015 was clearly his win at Detroit #2, where he survived a chaotic race on a wet, but drying, track and held off attempts from 2 of the most aggressive drivers in IndyCar: Juan Pablo Montoya and Takuma Sato. Bourdais' open wheel experience pays dividends when it comes to finishing races: he has only 1 DNF in 2015 at NOLAMP, and it was clearly not his fault.
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 1, 0, 2
Current 2015 Points/Race: 24.9
Kyle's preseason classification: Potential winner
Performance level: Meeting expectations
| Oval | Road | Street | ||||||||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Average Start Position | 25 | 12.8 | 15.3 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 16 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 14.4 | 13.7 | 7.4 | 7 |
| Average Finish Position | 20 | 18.8 | 15.3 | 12.5 | 11.7 | 12.7 | 8 | 11 | 18.9 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 6.4 |
On the right day, Bourdais is capable of being the fastest man on any twisty, especially in qualifications. His worst starting spot on a twisty this year has been 9th (Long Beach). Bourdais has improved his average finish on street tracks from 9.9 in 2014 to 6.4 in 2015. His best moment of 2015 was clearly his win at Detroit #2, where he survived a chaotic race on a wet, but drying, track and held off attempts from 2 of the most aggressive drivers in IndyCar: Juan Pablo Montoya and Takuma Sato. Bourdais' open wheel experience pays dividends when it comes to finishing races: he has only 1 DNF in 2015 at NOLAMP, and it was clearly not his fault.
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