Before the 2015 season, I predicted that the 2015 champion would have 4 wins, 3 podium finishes that weren't wins (2nd or 3rd place), and 2 finishes of 4th or 5th. I also predicted that the 2015 IndyCar champion will score 30.3 points per race. Keep in mind that there are 2 double points races in 2015 (Indianapolis 500 and Sonoma). Although the 2015 season has 16 races, double points races count as 2 when discussing 'wins' and 'points/race,' so the 2015 season effectively has 18 races.
Each driver's review will have the following:
- Current Points Rank: driver's position in the point standings
- Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: How many races the driver has won, how many races the driver has finished 2nd or 3rd, how many races the driver has finished 4th or 5th
- Current 2015 Points/Race: Average points the driver has scored at each race
- Kyle's preseason classification: How I the classified driver before the start of the 2015 season. One of either championship contender, dark horse championship threat, threat for multiple wins, potential winner, long shot, or rookie
- Performance level: How I feel driver is performing, relative to preseason expectations
- Driver's average finishes on ovals, road courses, and street courses by year
Marco Andretti
Current Points Rank: 7
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 1, 2
Current 2015 Points/Race: 24.7
Kyle's preseason classification: Long Shot
Performance level: Meeting expectations
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 1, 2
Current 2015 Points/Race: 24.7
Kyle's preseason classification: Long Shot
Performance level: Meeting expectations
| Oval | Road | Street | ||||||||||
| Values | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Average of St | 5 | 2.7 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 11 | 7.3 | 12.8 | 15.7 | 16.4 | 13.1 | 13.8 | 11.2 |
| Average of Fin | 13.2 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 5.5 | 14.7 | 6.7 | 11.5 | 13 | 15.4 | 9.5 | 12.1 | 7.6 |
During his first 9 years in IndyCar, Andretti has an average finish of 8.7 in the championship. He's on track to continue that trend in 2015. His race of the year was easily Detroit #1, where he overruled repeated requests from his father and team owner to pit for wet weather tires on a damp track. This decision vaulted him to the top of field, and he may have won the race had he not had to pit for fuel before teammate Carlos Munoz. This great day in Detroit was only a part of his improved average finish on street courses in 2015, which is his best between 2012 and 2015 (there are no street courses left on the 2015 schedule).
Although
there have only been 2 oval races in 2015, Andretti has been the best
performing Honda on ovals, which have always been Andretti's strong
suit. If a Honda does win an oval race in 2015, my money is on
Andretti.
Josef Newgarden
Current Points Rank: 8
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 2, 0, 0
Current 2015 Points/Race: 24.4
Kyle's preseason classification: Potential winner
Performance level: Above expectations
Newgarden earned his first career win at Barber, and followed that up with his 2nd career win at Toronto a few months later. Newgarden and his team should be thrilled with the results they've had so far. It's not hard to envision a scenario where the culture at Sarah Fisher Hartman Racing did not mesh well with Ed Carpenter Racing's culture, especially given that SFH was switching from Honda to Chevrolet engines. Fortunately, that wasn't the case, and Newgarden has been relieved of the monkey that has been on his back since the Mid-Ohio race of last year.
I'm curious to see where Newgarden's career goes from here. To become a championship contender, Newgarden must find consistency along with his now proven ability to win races. His 2 wins have been his only top 5 finishes in 2015, and when Newgarden hasn't won, he has been irrelevant. His 3rd best finish so far in 2015 was 7th at Long Beach. He's no longer the feel good story of a young kid on a small, scrappy team who can be excused for several anonymous outings each season. This is Newgarden's 4th full IndyCar season, and he has made 61 IndyCar starts. CFHR is now a two car team, and his teammate in the other CFHR car is always capable, so he should always be learning from his teammate's data. I say this not to make light of his accomplishments so far, but because if he wants to be a champion, he still has a lot of work to do.
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 2, 0, 0
Current 2015 Points/Race: 24.4
Kyle's preseason classification: Potential winner
Performance level: Above expectations
| Oval | Road | Street | ||||||||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Average Start Position | 14.6 | 16.2 | 10 | 11.5 | 15.3 | 19 | 5.8 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 17.9 | 13.9 | 10.2 |
| Average Finish Position | 19.6 | 14.5 | 11 | 15 | 17.3 | 18.7 | 10.8 | 10 | 17.5 | 11.8 | 17.3 | 9.8 |
Newgarden earned his first career win at Barber, and followed that up with his 2nd career win at Toronto a few months later. Newgarden and his team should be thrilled with the results they've had so far. It's not hard to envision a scenario where the culture at Sarah Fisher Hartman Racing did not mesh well with Ed Carpenter Racing's culture, especially given that SFH was switching from Honda to Chevrolet engines. Fortunately, that wasn't the case, and Newgarden has been relieved of the monkey that has been on his back since the Mid-Ohio race of last year.
I'm curious to see where Newgarden's career goes from here. To become a championship contender, Newgarden must find consistency along with his now proven ability to win races. His 2 wins have been his only top 5 finishes in 2015, and when Newgarden hasn't won, he has been irrelevant. His 3rd best finish so far in 2015 was 7th at Long Beach. He's no longer the feel good story of a young kid on a small, scrappy team who can be excused for several anonymous outings each season. This is Newgarden's 4th full IndyCar season, and he has made 61 IndyCar starts. CFHR is now a two car team, and his teammate in the other CFHR car is always capable, so he should always be learning from his teammate's data. I say this not to make light of his accomplishments so far, but because if he wants to be a champion, he still has a lot of work to do.
Tony Kanaan
Current Points Rank: 9
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 2, 1
Current 2015 Points/Race: 22.1
Kyle's preseason classification: Threat for multiple wins
Performance level: Below expectations
Kanaan has had a decent 2015 so far, but Chip Ganassi expects more than 'decent' from his drivers. One of the downsides to the Penske and Ganassi teams expanding to more than 2 cars each is that there are fewer wins to go around for each driver. If both teams expected 2 wins from each of their drivers (4 at Penske, 2 at Ganassi), that's 12 of the 16 total races on the 2015 schedule. Someone is almost guaranteed to have a (relatively) 'disappointing' year.
Fortunately for Kanaan, 4 oval races remain on the 2015 schedule. Ovals have always been his strong suit, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him win 2 or 3 races before the season is over.
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 2, 1
Current 2015 Points/Race: 22.1
Kyle's preseason classification: Threat for multiple wins
Performance level: Below expectations
| Oval | Road | Street | ||||||||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Average Start Position | 8.6 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 6 | 13.3 | 18 | 10.8 | 5 | 14.3 | 10.9 | 10.5 | 10.2 |
| Average Finish Position | 7.4 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 14 | 12.3 | 16.7 | 13.3 | 8.7 | 12.9 | 15.9 | 8 | 9.4 |
Kanaan has had a decent 2015 so far, but Chip Ganassi expects more than 'decent' from his drivers. One of the downsides to the Penske and Ganassi teams expanding to more than 2 cars each is that there are fewer wins to go around for each driver. If both teams expected 2 wins from each of their drivers (4 at Penske, 2 at Ganassi), that's 12 of the 16 total races on the 2015 schedule. Someone is almost guaranteed to have a (relatively) 'disappointing' year.
Fortunately for Kanaan, 4 oval races remain on the 2015 schedule. Ovals have always been his strong suit, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him win 2 or 3 races before the season is over.
Simon Pagenaud
Current Points Rank: 10
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 1, 2
Current 2015 Points/Race: 21.1
Kyle's preseason classification: Championship contender
Performance level: Below expectations
Like Kanaan, Simon Pagenaud seems to have fallen victim to the increased number of 'red' (Penske and Ganassi) cars in 2015. There simply aren't enough wins to go around for all the drivers in top-of-the-line rides. Pagenaud is only 31, so he has plenty of time to pursue championships with his Penske equipment.
Although Pagenaud's average finish on road courses is a scary-bad 18, I see no reason this trend will continue. His worst average finish on road courses between 2012 and 2014 was 5. Drivers often need a significant portion of a season to adjust to new surroundings. During NBCSN's coverage of the Toronto race, they commented that Pagenaud was given more freedom during the Toronto weekend to pursue his own setups. This newly acquired freedom should help Pagenaud return to his pre-2015 form.
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 1, 2
Current 2015 Points/Race: 21.1
Kyle's preseason classification: Championship contender
Performance level: Below expectations
| Oval | Road | Street | ||||||||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Average Start Position | 16.8 | 13.7 | 10.3 | 2.5 | 7.3 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 9 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 4.4 |
| Average Finish Position | 11 | 9.7 | 10 | 10.5 | 5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 18 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 7.4 |
Like Kanaan, Simon Pagenaud seems to have fallen victim to the increased number of 'red' (Penske and Ganassi) cars in 2015. There simply aren't enough wins to go around for all the drivers in top-of-the-line rides. Pagenaud is only 31, so he has plenty of time to pursue championships with his Penske equipment.
Although Pagenaud's average finish on road courses is a scary-bad 18, I see no reason this trend will continue. His worst average finish on road courses between 2012 and 2014 was 5. Drivers often need a significant portion of a season to adjust to new surroundings. During NBCSN's coverage of the Toronto race, they commented that Pagenaud was given more freedom during the Toronto weekend to pursue his own setups. This newly acquired freedom should help Pagenaud return to his pre-2015 form.
Charlie Kimball
Current Points Rank: 11
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 1, 1
Current 2015 Points/Race: 20.4
Kyle's preseason classification: Potential winner
Performance level: Meeting expectations
In 4 full seasons of IndyCar racing, Kimball has points finishes of 19, 19, 9, and 14. His current points position of 11th seems to be par for the course. A podium finish at the Indianapolis 500 has been his best race of 2015. Oddly, Kimball has struggled on street courses in 2015. He averaged a finish of 11th place and change at street circuits between 2012 and 2014, but that average dropped to 17.8 this year. It wasn't due to his qualifying pace: Kimball averaged a starting position of 14.4 at street circuits, which was his best average starting spot on street courses between 2012 and 2015.
Although Kimball's performance hasn't been consistent with teammates Scott Dixon and Tony Kanaan, it's unlikely that team owner Chip Ganassi would hold Kimball to the same standard he applies to Dixon and Kanaan. Kimball seems to bring Novo Nordisk sponsorship with him to Chip Ganassi Racing. If Kimball goes away, so does the sponsorship. As long as Kimball keeps Novo Nordisk happy and doesn't tear up too many cars, he should have a home with Ganassi for some time.
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 1, 1
Current 2015 Points/Race: 20.4
Kyle's preseason classification: Potential winner
Performance level: Meeting expectations
| Oval | Road | Street | ||||||||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Average Start Position | 17 | 13 | 12.8 | 11.5 | 21.5 | 5.3 | 17.8 | 15.3 | 16.4 | 14.9 | 18.1 | 14.4 |
| Average Finish Position | 13.8 | 11.2 | 16 | 5 | 23 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 11.7 | 11.6 | 11 | 17.8 |
In 4 full seasons of IndyCar racing, Kimball has points finishes of 19, 19, 9, and 14. His current points position of 11th seems to be par for the course. A podium finish at the Indianapolis 500 has been his best race of 2015. Oddly, Kimball has struggled on street courses in 2015. He averaged a finish of 11th place and change at street circuits between 2012 and 2014, but that average dropped to 17.8 this year. It wasn't due to his qualifying pace: Kimball averaged a starting position of 14.4 at street circuits, which was his best average starting spot on street courses between 2012 and 2015.
Although Kimball's performance hasn't been consistent with teammates Scott Dixon and Tony Kanaan, it's unlikely that team owner Chip Ganassi would hold Kimball to the same standard he applies to Dixon and Kanaan. Kimball seems to bring Novo Nordisk sponsorship with him to Chip Ganassi Racing. If Kimball goes away, so does the sponsorship. As long as Kimball keeps Novo Nordisk happy and doesn't tear up too many cars, he should have a home with Ganassi for some time.
Carlos Munoz
Current Points Rank: 12
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 1, 0, 0
Current 2015 Points/Race: 19.6
Kyle's preseason classification: Potential winner
Performance level: Meeting expectations
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 1, 0, 0
Current 2015 Points/Race: 19.6
Kyle's preseason classification: Potential winner
Performance level: Meeting expectations
| Oval | Road | Street | ||||||
| Year | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2014 | 2015 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Average Start Position | 6 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 9.8 | 19 | 24 | 10.9 | 14 |
| Average Finish Position | 12.5 | 10.3 | 13 | 17.5 | 10.3 | 17 | 11.8 | 13.8 |
2015 is Munoz's 2nd full season of IndyCar competition, although he made quite an impression during the 2013 Indianapolis 500 when he started and finished in 2nd place. At this point in the season, it seems safe to say that Munoz is progressing nicely in his career. His average road course finish improved by over 7 positions to 10.3 compared to his rookie year in 2014. His average street course finish dropped 2 places to 13.8, but this was pulled down by mechanical DNFs of 23rd place and 22nd place at Detroit #2 and Toronto respectively.
I'm curious to see how he performs during the 4 remaining oval races when he visits those tracks for the 2nd time in his career. Improvement on oval tracks might indicate that he will be capable of taking the place at the front of the IndyCar field when the current frontrunners, some of whom are at or nearing 40 years old (Castroneves, Kaanan, Montoya).
Takuma Sato
Current Points Rank: 13
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 1, 0
Current 2015 Points/Race: 18.2
Kyle's preseason classification: Potential winner
Performance level: Exceeding expectations
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 1, 0
Current 2015 Points/Race: 18.2
Kyle's preseason classification: Potential winner
Performance level: Exceeding expectations
| Oval | Road | Street | ||||||||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Average Start Position | 21.4 | 17.2 | 12.2 | 18.5 | 19.7 | 13.3 | 17.8 | 18.3 | 13.1 | 9.7 | 10.3 | 10.4 |
| Average Finish Position | 15.6 | 15.5 | 16.8 | 14.5 | 21.3 | 19.7 | 11 | 16 | 12.1 | 15.2 | 16.8 | 10.8 |
Sato has a well-deserved reputation for crashing, and I called him out for it in my season preview. Although only 3 of his 6 DNFs in 2014 were because of crashes, I theorized that some of his mechanical DNFs might have been prevented had his crew not spent so much of their time fixing wrecked cars. Over halfway through the 2015 season, Sato has only crashed once, and has suffered 0 mechanical DNFs. I have no way of knowing whether Sato's avoidance of accidents has prevented other issues, but it certainly hasn't hurt the reliability of his cars in other races.
Ryan Hunter-Reay
Current Points Rank: 14
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 0, 1
Current 2015 Points/Race: 17.6
Kyle's preseason classification: Dark horse championship threat
Performance level: Below expectations
When people say they're surprised by how far off Andretti Autosport has been in 2015, what they're really saying is that they're surprised by how terrible Ryan Hunter-Reay has been in 2015. His Andretti Autosport teammates Marco Andretti and Carlos Munoz are both performing at the levels they should be, but 2015 has been a disaster for Hunter-Reay.
Hunter-Reay is having his worst year qualifying since 2012 across all track types. His best finish has been a 5th (Barber), and he only has 2 other top 10 finishes. What's strange is that he has only 2 DNFs and no finishes worse than 19th. He has a poor points position because he has been slow in both qualifying and races, not because of crashes.
Things would be different if Hunter-Reay was one of the top 3 Honda drivers in points this year, but that isn't the case. Yes, Honda has lagged behind Chevrolet, but Hunter-Reay is only 5th in points among Honda drivers. Both of his teammates are ahead of him in the standings, and they theoretically have access to the same setups and data that Hunter-Reay does. His Andretti Autosport teammate Marco Andretti has scored 40% more points than him!
I called Hunter-Reay a dark horse championship threat at the beginning of 2015, and I expected a lot more from him this year. Andretti Autosport performed a significant amount of Honda's aero-kit testing, and it's safe to assume that Hunter-Reay received more than his fair share of seat time at those tests. That is as close to an unfair advantage that a team can get, but Hunter-Reay hasn't been able to take advantage of it in 2015.
Hunter-Reay has now taken an odd stance about the impact of the preseason testing. In a recent article from racer.com, Hunter-Reay blamed his poor 2015 form on Andretti Autosport's testing duties for Honda. I've talked to a few people who think this is a legitimate excuse, but I'm skeptical. I have trouble buying that AJ Foyt Racing or Bryan Herta Autosport were better off doing nothing over the offseason while Hunter-Reay was shake the rust off, driving a racecar, and collecting data from the new Honda parts that no other team had. Penske and Ganassi certainly haven't been hurt by their testing for Chevrolet.
Regardless of the impact of the testing, everyone agrees that the sooner 2015 is over for Hunter-Reay, the better.
Gabby Chaves has clearly accomplished objective #1 at each race in 2015: bring the car home in one piece. Through 10 races, Chaves has 0 DNFs. I suspect that words cannot describe how relieved team owner Bryan Herta is that Chaves has been so careful with his equipment. Bryan Herta Autosport is one of the smallest teams in the paddock, and I doubt there is much money in the budget for fixing crash damage. Pairing a rookie with a lower-budget team could easily have been a recipe for disaster, since a rookie's youthful exuberance can often lead to crashes. Fortunately, Chaves has kept his wits about him all season.
Chaves is also doing a great job of accomplishing objective #2 at each race: finish on the lead lap. He has finished on the lead lap in 7 races, and 1 of the races where he didn't complete every lap was at Texas, where only 5 cars finished on the lead lap. This should pay dividends in 2016 because Chaves will have more race experience at each track than he would have had if he had crashed out on lap 4.
I struggled to interpret Chaves' numbers in light of Honda's struggles in 2015. I know BHA's cars are capable of being fast. Last year, Jack Hawksworth had 4 top-10 starts, 4 top-10 finishes, including a 3rd place finish at Houston, while driving for BHA. When compared to Hawksworth, Chaves' best start of 16th didn't impress me initially. But then I remembered that it was completely unfair to expect Chaves to out-qualify any of the Chevrolet teams, who have superior equipment and multi-car teams.
I was also unimpressed with Chaves' average finish on twisties, which is just a bit worse than 15th. Chaves usually finishes near the end of the lead lap, only placing ahead of lapped drivers (who are sometimes lapped because of failed strategy gambles or an unscheduled pit stop), crashed drivers, and drivers running a partial 2015 season. Ultimately though, I think that keeping a small team's Honda on the lead lap qualifies as 'overachieving', especially for a rookie. When I combine his ability to finish on the lead lap with his ability to not crash, it looks like Chaves is clearly exceeding expectations.
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 0, 1
Current 2015 Points/Race: 17.6
Kyle's preseason classification: Dark horse championship threat
Performance level: Below expectations
| Oval | Road | Street | ||||||||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Average Start Position | 9.4 | 6.5 | 13.5 | 18.5 | 8.3 | 2 | 5.3 | 14.7 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 11.6 |
| Average Finish Position | 10.8 | 6.2 | 12.7 | 16.5 | 18 | 4 | 3.8 | 11.7 | 3.9 | 17.1 | 13.1 | 12 |
When people say they're surprised by how far off Andretti Autosport has been in 2015, what they're really saying is that they're surprised by how terrible Ryan Hunter-Reay has been in 2015. His Andretti Autosport teammates Marco Andretti and Carlos Munoz are both performing at the levels they should be, but 2015 has been a disaster for Hunter-Reay.
Hunter-Reay is having his worst year qualifying since 2012 across all track types. His best finish has been a 5th (Barber), and he only has 2 other top 10 finishes. What's strange is that he has only 2 DNFs and no finishes worse than 19th. He has a poor points position because he has been slow in both qualifying and races, not because of crashes.
Things would be different if Hunter-Reay was one of the top 3 Honda drivers in points this year, but that isn't the case. Yes, Honda has lagged behind Chevrolet, but Hunter-Reay is only 5th in points among Honda drivers. Both of his teammates are ahead of him in the standings, and they theoretically have access to the same setups and data that Hunter-Reay does. His Andretti Autosport teammate Marco Andretti has scored 40% more points than him!
I called Hunter-Reay a dark horse championship threat at the beginning of 2015, and I expected a lot more from him this year. Andretti Autosport performed a significant amount of Honda's aero-kit testing, and it's safe to assume that Hunter-Reay received more than his fair share of seat time at those tests. That is as close to an unfair advantage that a team can get, but Hunter-Reay hasn't been able to take advantage of it in 2015.
Hunter-Reay has now taken an odd stance about the impact of the preseason testing. In a recent article from racer.com, Hunter-Reay blamed his poor 2015 form on Andretti Autosport's testing duties for Honda. I've talked to a few people who think this is a legitimate excuse, but I'm skeptical. I have trouble buying that AJ Foyt Racing or Bryan Herta Autosport were better off doing nothing over the offseason while Hunter-Reay was shake the rust off, driving a racecar, and collecting data from the new Honda parts that no other team had. Penske and Ganassi certainly haven't been hurt by their testing for Chevrolet.
Regardless of the impact of the testing, everyone agrees that the sooner 2015 is over for Hunter-Reay, the better.
Gabby Chaves
Current Points Rank: 15
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 0, 0
Current 2015 Points/Race: 15.2
Kyle's preseason classification: Rookie
Performance level: Exceeding expectations
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 0, 0
Current 2015 Points/Race: 15.2
Kyle's preseason classification: Rookie
Performance level: Exceeding expectations
| Oval | Road | Street | |
| Year | 2015 | 2015 | 2015 |
| Average Start Position | 23 | 16.7 | 20.4 |
| Average Finish Position | 13 | 15.3 | 15 |
Gabby Chaves has clearly accomplished objective #1 at each race in 2015: bring the car home in one piece. Through 10 races, Chaves has 0 DNFs. I suspect that words cannot describe how relieved team owner Bryan Herta is that Chaves has been so careful with his equipment. Bryan Herta Autosport is one of the smallest teams in the paddock, and I doubt there is much money in the budget for fixing crash damage. Pairing a rookie with a lower-budget team could easily have been a recipe for disaster, since a rookie's youthful exuberance can often lead to crashes. Fortunately, Chaves has kept his wits about him all season.
Chaves is also doing a great job of accomplishing objective #2 at each race: finish on the lead lap. He has finished on the lead lap in 7 races, and 1 of the races where he didn't complete every lap was at Texas, where only 5 cars finished on the lead lap. This should pay dividends in 2016 because Chaves will have more race experience at each track than he would have had if he had crashed out on lap 4.
I struggled to interpret Chaves' numbers in light of Honda's struggles in 2015. I know BHA's cars are capable of being fast. Last year, Jack Hawksworth had 4 top-10 starts, 4 top-10 finishes, including a 3rd place finish at Houston, while driving for BHA. When compared to Hawksworth, Chaves' best start of 16th didn't impress me initially. But then I remembered that it was completely unfair to expect Chaves to out-qualify any of the Chevrolet teams, who have superior equipment and multi-car teams.
I was also unimpressed with Chaves' average finish on twisties, which is just a bit worse than 15th. Chaves usually finishes near the end of the lead lap, only placing ahead of lapped drivers (who are sometimes lapped because of failed strategy gambles or an unscheduled pit stop), crashed drivers, and drivers running a partial 2015 season. Ultimately though, I think that keeping a small team's Honda on the lead lap qualifies as 'overachieving', especially for a rookie. When I combine his ability to finish on the lead lap with his ability to not crash, it looks like Chaves is clearly exceeding expectations.
James Jakes
Current Points Rank: 16
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 1, 0
Current 2015 Points/Race: 14.9
Kyle's preseason classification: Long Shot
Performance level: Meeting expectations
2015 is Jakes' 4th full season in IndyCar. He spent 2011 and 2012 with Dale Coyne, and moved to Rahal Letterman Lanigan in 2013 before taking 2014 off. His return to IndyCar with Schmidt Peterson Motorsports, the 3rd team of his career, has yielded similar results to other years.
On a professional level, Jakes has to be disappointed that James Hinchcliffe will probably miss the remainder of the 2015 season after Hinchcliffe suffered life threatening injuries in a scary crash during practice for the Indianapolis 500. Hinchcliffe is easily the best teammate that Jakes has had during his time in IndyCar (although Graham Rahal was a teammate in 2013, Rahal finished 18th in points that year, so his helpfulness to Jakes was probably minimal). Developing chemistry with Hinchcliffe may have helped Jakes elevate his game, but that opportunity is now gone for 2015.
Jakes had a podium finish during the chaotic race at NOLAMP, which was his best race of the season. His 2nd best finish this year has been a 9th place finish in Texas. Jakes has no DNFs, and I don't hold his 6 finishes of 15th or worse against him. He has taken several smart strategy gambles this year that didn't pay off, including taking slick tires on a wet track during one of IndyCar's many wet weather races in 2015. His qualifying performances have at least compared well to his teammates. He started ahead of a teammate 4 times this year.
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 1, 0
Current 2015 Points/Race: 14.9
Kyle's preseason classification: Long Shot
Performance level: Meeting expectations
| Oval | Road | Street | |||||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2015 | 2012 | 2013 | 2015 |
| Average Start Position | 16.8 | 14 | 15.5 | 21.3 | 13.3 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 14.7 | 15.4 |
| Average Finish Position | 14.2 | 17 | 13.5 | 15.7 | 20.3 | 14.3 | 18.9 | 13.7 | 17.8 |
2015 is Jakes' 4th full season in IndyCar. He spent 2011 and 2012 with Dale Coyne, and moved to Rahal Letterman Lanigan in 2013 before taking 2014 off. His return to IndyCar with Schmidt Peterson Motorsports, the 3rd team of his career, has yielded similar results to other years.
On a professional level, Jakes has to be disappointed that James Hinchcliffe will probably miss the remainder of the 2015 season after Hinchcliffe suffered life threatening injuries in a scary crash during practice for the Indianapolis 500. Hinchcliffe is easily the best teammate that Jakes has had during his time in IndyCar (although Graham Rahal was a teammate in 2013, Rahal finished 18th in points that year, so his helpfulness to Jakes was probably minimal). Developing chemistry with Hinchcliffe may have helped Jakes elevate his game, but that opportunity is now gone for 2015.
Jakes had a podium finish during the chaotic race at NOLAMP, which was his best race of the season. His 2nd best finish this year has been a 9th place finish in Texas. Jakes has no DNFs, and I don't hold his 6 finishes of 15th or worse against him. He has taken several smart strategy gambles this year that didn't pay off, including taking slick tires on a wet track during one of IndyCar's many wet weather races in 2015. His qualifying performances have at least compared well to his teammates. He started ahead of a teammate 4 times this year.
Current Points Rank: 17
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 1, 0
Current 2015 Points/Race: 20.1
Kyle's preseason classification: Long Shot
Performance level: Meeting expectations
Filippi had massive shoes to fill when he stepped into the #20 car for the twisty tracks in 2015. In 2014, designated road racer Mike Conway had 2 wins in the car. Filippi has performed admirably, especially considering he is a rookie. His best result so far has been a 2nd at Toronto, where he was part of a 1-2 finish with teammate Josef Newgarden. He has 4 total top-10 finishes in 8 races. If these results continue in the rest of 2015, I believe they will provide a solid foundation for his sophomore year. Filippi's points/race figure ranks 13th among drivers who have started every race in 2015, although it isn't a perfect comparison since Filippi doesn't race on oval tracks (where he has no experience) while other drivers with limited oval experience participate in those races.
Random trivia: Filippi finished in 9th position and on the lead lap in Detroit race #1, but had a DNF (the Stats section of the IndyCar website shows his status as 'contact'). This has to be some sort of record for the highest finishing car to not be considered 'running' at the end of the race.
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 1, 0
Current 2015 Points/Race: 20.1
Kyle's preseason classification: Long Shot
Performance level: Meeting expectations
| Road | Street | ||||
| Year | 2013 | 2015 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Average Start Position | 24 | 9 | 14.3 | 11.3 | 15 |
| Average Finish Position | 16 | 11.7 | 17 | 18.5 | 11.8 |
Filippi had massive shoes to fill when he stepped into the #20 car for the twisty tracks in 2015. In 2014, designated road racer Mike Conway had 2 wins in the car. Filippi has performed admirably, especially considering he is a rookie. His best result so far has been a 2nd at Toronto, where he was part of a 1-2 finish with teammate Josef Newgarden. He has 4 total top-10 finishes in 8 races. If these results continue in the rest of 2015, I believe they will provide a solid foundation for his sophomore year. Filippi's points/race figure ranks 13th among drivers who have started every race in 2015, although it isn't a perfect comparison since Filippi doesn't race on oval tracks (where he has no experience) while other drivers with limited oval experience participate in those races.
Random trivia: Filippi finished in 9th position and on the lead lap in Detroit race #1, but had a DNF (the Stats section of the IndyCar website shows his status as 'contact'). This has to be some sort of record for the highest finishing car to not be considered 'running' at the end of the race.
Jack Hawksworth
Current Points Rank: 18
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 0, 0
Current 2015 Points/Race: 13.7
Kyle's preseason classification: Long Shot
Performance level: Below expectations
Hawksworth has struggled in 2015. His best finishes have been a pair of 7ths at the Detroit doubleheader. He has 1 other top-10, an 8th place finish in St. Petersburg.
In my season preview, I said I wouldn't be surprised to see Hawksworth finish ahead of teammate Takuma Sato in points this year. Instead, Sato is scoring 4.5 points more than Hawksworth at each race, and Hawksworth is ahead of only 1 full season driver in the points standings, rookie Stefano Coletti. I expected Hawksworth to shine after moving to a multi-car team with many years of experience and a veteran driver, but that hasn't been the case.
Hawksworth does have 3 DNFs (2 crashes, 1 mechanical issue) that have hurt his points position, but since one of his crashes was while trying to dodge a spinning car during the monsoon at NOLAMP, I'm not too concerned that Sato is rubbing off on Hawksworth in the wrong way. Somebody has to finish last in the points standings, even when there are a bunch of good drivers in the field. The next 6 races will be crucial to determining how his season goes. A top-10 and no crashes would help a lot, while a few more accidents would make this a season to forget.
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 0, 0
Current 2015 Points/Race: 13.7
Kyle's preseason classification: Long Shot
Performance level: Below expectations
| Oval | Road | Street | ||||
| Year | 2014 | 2015 | 2014 | 2015 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Average Start Position | 17.4 | 22.5 | 15 | 12.7 | 14 | 16.8 |
| Average Finish Position | 15 | 23.5 | 12.5 | 22.7 | 12.1 | 10 |
Hawksworth has struggled in 2015. His best finishes have been a pair of 7ths at the Detroit doubleheader. He has 1 other top-10, an 8th place finish in St. Petersburg.
In my season preview, I said I wouldn't be surprised to see Hawksworth finish ahead of teammate Takuma Sato in points this year. Instead, Sato is scoring 4.5 points more than Hawksworth at each race, and Hawksworth is ahead of only 1 full season driver in the points standings, rookie Stefano Coletti. I expected Hawksworth to shine after moving to a multi-car team with many years of experience and a veteran driver, but that hasn't been the case.
Hawksworth does have 3 DNFs (2 crashes, 1 mechanical issue) that have hurt his points position, but since one of his crashes was while trying to dodge a spinning car during the monsoon at NOLAMP, I'm not too concerned that Sato is rubbing off on Hawksworth in the wrong way. Somebody has to finish last in the points standings, even when there are a bunch of good drivers in the field. The next 6 races will be crucial to determining how his season goes. A top-10 and no crashes would help a lot, while a few more accidents would make this a season to forget.
Stefano Coletti
Current Points Rank: 20
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 0, 0
Current 2015 Points/Race: 11.1
Kyle's preseason classification: Rookie
Performance level: Below expectations
Coletti has had a frustrating year so far in 2015, even for a rookie. Although he drives a Chevrolet, he only has 2 top-10 starts. Given the performance advantage Chevrolet has over Honda, he should be out-qualifying most Honda cars regularly. His average starts of 15.3 and 17.8 on road and street courses respectively mean that he isn't. His lone top-10 finish was 8th in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. I wouldn't expect a rookie to have a bunch of lead lap finishes, but Coletti has only managed 2. He still trails James Hinchcliffe in the point standings, even though he has started more than twice as many races as Hinchcliffe.
I'll be curious to see how Coletti progresses during the rest of 2015, and in 2016. He is quite inexperienced on ovals, but if he can stay out of trouble, he'll gain valuable experience this year. It's possible that the speed he showed in preseason testing will return when he visits tracks for a second time.
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 0, 0
Current 2015 Points/Race: 11.1
Kyle's preseason classification: Rookie
Performance level: Below expectations
| Oval | Road | Street | |
| Year | 2015 | 2015 | 2015 |
| Average Start Position | 26 | 15.3 | 17.8 |
| Average Finish Position | 22 | 14.7 | 19.4 |
Coletti has had a frustrating year so far in 2015, even for a rookie. Although he drives a Chevrolet, he only has 2 top-10 starts. Given the performance advantage Chevrolet has over Honda, he should be out-qualifying most Honda cars regularly. His average starts of 15.3 and 17.8 on road and street courses respectively mean that he isn't. His lone top-10 finish was 8th in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. I wouldn't expect a rookie to have a bunch of lead lap finishes, but Coletti has only managed 2. He still trails James Hinchcliffe in the point standings, even though he has started more than twice as many races as Hinchcliffe.
I'll be curious to see how Coletti progresses during the rest of 2015, and in 2016. He is quite inexperienced on ovals, but if he can stay out of trouble, he'll gain valuable experience this year. It's possible that the speed he showed in preseason testing will return when he visits tracks for a second time.
Sage Karam
Current Points Rank: 21
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 0, 0
Current 2015 Points/Race: 13.6
Kyle's preseason classification: Rookie
Performance level: Below expectations
Before the season, I said it would be a disappointment if Karam didn't earn rookie of the year honors in 2015. A lack of sponsorship has kept him out of several races, but his twisty average finishes seem to be competitive with probable rookie of the year Gabby Chaves.
Karam has had a few 'rookie moments' in 2015. He called out Takuma Sato on Twitter after the pair were involved in a lap 1, turn 1 accident in the Indianapolis 500. The next weekend at Detroit he received 3 penalties in 2 races. One of those was an egregious block against Takuma Sato that was likely in retaliation for the incident in Indianapolis. IndyCar placed him on probation for 5 races after the Detroit weekend. Hopefully, this will calm him down. Karam did score his 2 best finishes of the year, a pair of 12ths at Detroit #2 and Texas, in his last 2 races, so it looks like he's learning what it takes to finish well in an IndyCar.
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 0, 0
Current 2015 Points/Race: 13.6
Kyle's preseason classification: Rookie
Performance level: Below expectations
| Oval | Road | Street | ||
| Year | 2014 | 2015 | 2015 | 2015 |
| Average Start Position | 31 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 16.7 |
| Average Finish Position | 9 | 22 | 18 | 15.7 |
Before the season, I said it would be a disappointment if Karam didn't earn rookie of the year honors in 2015. A lack of sponsorship has kept him out of several races, but his twisty average finishes seem to be competitive with probable rookie of the year Gabby Chaves.
Karam has had a few 'rookie moments' in 2015. He called out Takuma Sato on Twitter after the pair were involved in a lap 1, turn 1 accident in the Indianapolis 500. The next weekend at Detroit he received 3 penalties in 2 races. One of those was an egregious block against Takuma Sato that was likely in retaliation for the incident in Indianapolis. IndyCar placed him on probation for 5 races after the Detroit weekend. Hopefully, this will calm him down. Karam did score his 2 best finishes of the year, a pair of 12ths at Detroit #2 and Texas, in his last 2 races, so it looks like he's learning what it takes to finish well in an IndyCar.
Ed Carpenter
Current Points Rank: 35
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 0, 0
Current 2015 Points/Race: 6
Kyle's preseason classification: Threat for multiple wins
Performance level: Incomplete
Ed Carpenter has had a difficult start to 2015. He flipped his car in a practice accident just before qualifying for the Indianapolis 500, forcing him to qualify in a hastily prepared backup car. He was able to qualify, but crashed while running 15th in the race. His only other race ended with a DNF for engine troubles.
Carpenter has appeared frustrated at both races, but I'm not ready to write off his season yet. The 2 races he has been in haven't given him many chances to perform well. He typically excels at bigger tracks, so he could be at the front of the races at California and Pocono.
If you want to get in touch, feel free to leave a comment or send an email to spottersstand@gmail.com. Follow the blog on Twitter (@spotstandblog) for reminders about new posts.
Wins, other podium finishes, 4th and 5th place finishes: 0, 0, 0
Current 2015 Points/Race: 6
Kyle's preseason classification: Threat for multiple wins
Performance level: Incomplete
| Oval | ||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Average Start Position | 19 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 13.5 |
| Average Finish Position | 10 | 7.2 | 9.7 | 26 |
Ed Carpenter has had a difficult start to 2015. He flipped his car in a practice accident just before qualifying for the Indianapolis 500, forcing him to qualify in a hastily prepared backup car. He was able to qualify, but crashed while running 15th in the race. His only other race ended with a DNF for engine troubles.
Carpenter has appeared frustrated at both races, but I'm not ready to write off his season yet. The 2 races he has been in haven't given him many chances to perform well. He typically excels at bigger tracks, so he could be at the front of the races at California and Pocono.
If you want to get in touch, feel free to leave a comment or send an email to spottersstand@gmail.com. Follow the blog on Twitter (@spotstandblog) for reminders about new posts.
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