2015 Toronto Strategy Review

That's what an IndyCar race on a wet track should look like.  After having plenty of opportunities to work on their wet-weather skills (NOLA, qualifying at Barber, and both Detroit races), IndyCar drivers finally managed to put on a race in the wet without causing a lot of yellows. 

Caution Breakdown for Toronto

Lap	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013 #1	2013 #2	2014 #1	2014 #2	2015
1					Yellow 1		Yellow 1	Yellow 1
2					Yellow 1		Yellow 1	Yellow 1
3			Yellow 1		Yellow 1
4			Yellow 1
5			Yellow 1
6
7
8	Yellow 1
9	Yellow 1
10	Yellow 1
11
12	Yellow 2							Yellow 2
13	Yellow 2							Yellow 2
14								Yellow 2
15								Yellow 2
16								Yellow 2
17		Yellow 1					Yellow 2	Yellow 2
18		Yellow 1					Yellow 2	Yellow 2
19		Yellow 1					Yellow 2
20		Yellow 1
21
22		Yellow 2
23		Yellow 2
24		Yellow 2		Yellow 1				Yellow 3
25		Yellow 2		Yellow 1				Yellow 3
26				Yellow 1				Yellow 3
27		Yellow 3		Yellow 1
28		Yellow 3
29		Yellow 3							Yellow 1
30		Yellow 3							Yellow 1
31			Yellow 2						Yellow 1
32			Yellow 2						Yellow 1
33		Yellow 4	Yellow 2					Yellow 4
34		Yellow 4	Yellow 2					Yellow 4
35			Yellow 2		Yellow 2
36					Yellow 2
37					Yellow 2
38					Yellow 2
39			Yellow 3		Yellow 2
40			Yellow 3
41			Yellow 3						Yellow 2
42			Yellow 3						Yellow 2
43									Yellow 2
44								Yellow 5	Yellow 2
45								Yellow 5	Yellow 2
46								Yellow 5
47								Yellow 5
48			Yellow 4
49			Yellow 4
50			Yellow 4
51			Yellow 4					Yellow 6
52								Yellow 7
53
54
55
56
57			Yellow 5
58			Yellow 5
59	Yellow 3		Yellow 5
60	Yellow 3		Yellow 5
61	Yellow 3
62
63
64
65					Yellow 3	Yellow 1
66	Yellow 4	Yellow 5	Yellow 6		Yellow 3	Yellow 1
67	Yellow 4	Yellow 5	Yellow 6		Yellow 3	Yellow 1
68	Yellow 4	Yellow 5	Yellow 6		Yellow 3	Yellow 1
69	Yellow 4	Yellow 5	Yellow 6			Yellow 1
70		Yellow 5	Yellow 6			Yellow 1
71
72			Yellow 7
73			Yellow 7
74		Yellow 6	Yellow 7
75	Yellow 5	Yellow 6	Yellow 7
76	Yellow 5
77	Yellow 5		Yellow 8
78			Yellow 8
79			Yellow 8
80				Yellow 2
81				Yellow 2		Yellow 2
82					Yellow 4	Yellow 2
83				Yellow 3	Yellow 4
84				Yellow 3		Yellow 3
85						Yellow 3

 
Cautions per Year

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013 #1	2013 #2	2014 #1	2014 #2	2015
Total Cautions	5	6	8	3	4	3	2	7	2
Total Caution Laps	15	21	32	8	14	10	5	20	9
Average Caution Length (Laps)	3.0	3.5	4.0	2.7	3.5	3.3	2.5	2.9	4.5
First Caution Lap	8	17	3	24	1	65	1	1	29
Last Restart (Laps Remaining)	8	10	6	1	2	3	46	11	45

This year's race in Toronto only had 2 full course yellows, a significant improvement over race #2 last year, which had 7.  The average number of cautions per race since the DW12 arrived in IndyCar is just a bit over 3, a substantial improvement over the years 2009 to 2011, which averaged over 6 per race.


Lap Number of the Winner's Pit Stops*

Year	2013 #1	2013	2014 #1	2014 #2	2015
Winner	Dixon	Dixon	Bourdais	Conway	Newgarden
Stop 1	26	24	1	14	11
Stop 2	62	57	34	20	28
Stop 3	N/A	N/A	N/A	43	58

 
Caution periods played a major role in determining the outcome of Sunday's race.  Helio Castroneves and Josef Newgarden both stopped on lap 11 to change from wet tires to dry tires.  Newgarden made his 2nd stop of the day on lap 28 while running in 10th position, knowing that he would be able to reach the end of the race with only 1 additional stop.  The duo inherited 1st and 2nd place, respectively, during the race's 1st full course yellow on lap 29 when both chose to not pit with the leaders.

Castroneves was hoping that the race would have a long green flag run after the incident was cleared from the track.  Although he would need to pit before his competitors, he would be able to run with a clear track in front of him, allowing him to open a gap on the field before he had to pit.  Newgarden was effectively on the same pit strategy as the leaders, but now had much better track position than he had before his 2nd stop.

A 2nd full course yellow on lap 41 cost Castroneves the gap he had built over the field and forced him to make his 2nd stop under yellow, dropping him to 16th.  Newgarden inherited the lead when Castroneves stopped, and would only relinquish it for his 3rd and final pit stop.  Newgarden's lap 28 pit stop put him in position to win the race, assuming he didn't crack under pressure.  Fortunately, he didn't, and earned his 2nd career win during IndyCar's only trip north of the border.

Not All Bad for Helio
Although the 2nd caution cost Castroneves a shot at winning, the long green flag run at the end of the race did allow him to claw his way back to a 3rd place finish.  Castroneves made his 2nd stop 10 laps later than all cars in front of him, and this gave him two significant advantages.

First, he was able to stay on track as other cars made their final stops beginning on lap 53.  I can't be 100% sure of this, but judging by the lap chart, it looks like Castroneves didn't have to pass a single car on track during his climb from 16th on lap 52 to 4th on lap 67.  Although passing cars on track is sexy, it isn't fast.  Drivers turn their best times when they have the entire track to themselves.  Passing another car forces both cars to take less than optimal lines through one or more corners, which slows both cars down.  It appears that cars began to pit as Castroneves approached them.  This allowed him to run faster laps since he didn't have to pass any cars.


The 2nd advantage to Castroneves' late 2nd pit stop was that he needed to take less fuel during his final pit stop.  Castroneves made his penultimate stop on lap 42 while his competition made their penultimate stops on lap 31.  When Castroneves made his final stop, he needed to take 11 laps less fuel on board than his competition, allowing him to make a shorter final pit stop than he would have needed had he pitted with his competitors.  Castroneves' margin over 4th place finisher Will Power at the end of the race was less than 1 second, so a longer pit stop might have cost him a podium finish.

Although Castroneves didn't have to pass many cars on track, his trek to 3rd was probably quite challenging.   He must have been on the ragged edge since he ran several laps at 60.5 seconds or quicker, and set the fastest lap of the race (60.06 seconds) while leading on lap 65.  Although this was slower than Will Power's pole time of 59.4 seconds, it's important to remember that the track was wet at the start of the race.  Teams likely had compromised setups on their cars so that they could be competitive in both wet and dry conditions.

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