I love IndyCar, but the series should consider spreading its events out. I'm starting to feel like a zombie who's been inundated with races, and that's too bad: the 2015 season started on the last weekend in March and only runs to the end of August. To jam 8 races into a bit over 2 months is wasteful. Each of the 16 races should be savored by fans as a cherished gift, not viewed as one step of a marathon segment of races. I can't imagine what team members who have been traveling for the majority of this stretch of time feel like.
Caution Breakdown for Dual in Detroit
| Lap | 2007 | 2008 | 2012 | 2013 #1 | 2013 #2 | 2014 #1 | 2014 #2 | 2015 #1 | 2015 #2 |
| 1 | Yellow 1 | Yellow 1 | Yellow 1 | Yellow 1 | |||||
| 2 | Yellow 1 | Yellow 1 | Yellow 1 | Yellow 1 | |||||
| 3 | Yellow 1 | Yellow 1 | Yellow 1 | Yellow 1 | |||||
| 4 | Yellow 1 | ||||||||
| 5 | Yellow 1 | ||||||||
| 6 | Yellow 1 | Yellow 2 | |||||||
| 7 | Yellow 1 | Yellow 2 | |||||||
| 8 | Yellow 2 | ||||||||
| 9 | Yellow 2 | ||||||||
| 10 | Yellow 2 | Yellow 2 | Yellow 2 | ||||||
| 11 | Yellow 2 | Yellow 2 | |||||||
| 12 | Yellow 2 | Yellow 2 | |||||||
| 13 | Yellow 2 | ||||||||
| 14 | Yellow 3 | Yellow 3 | |||||||
| 15 | Yellow 3 | ||||||||
| 16 | Yellow 2 | Yellow 3 | |||||||
| 17 | Yellow 2 | Yellow 3 | |||||||
| 18 | Yellow 2 | Yellow 2 | |||||||
| 19 | Yellow 2 | Yellow 2 | |||||||
| 20 | Yellow 4 | ||||||||
| 21 | Yellow 4 | Yellow 4 | |||||||
| 22 | Yellow 4 | Yellow 4 | |||||||
| 23 | |||||||||
| 24 | Yellow 5 | ||||||||
| 25 | Yellow 2 | Yellow 5 | |||||||
| 26 | Yellow 2 | Yellow 5 | Yellow 5 | ||||||
| 27 | Yellow 2 | Yellow 5 | |||||||
| 28 | Yellow 1 | Yellow 2 | Yellow 6 | ||||||
| 29 | Yellow 1 | Yellow 2 | Yellow 6 | ||||||
| 30 | Yellow 1 | Yellow 2 | Yellow 6 | ||||||
| 31 | Yellow 6 | Yellow 6 | |||||||
| 32 | Yellow 2 | Yellow 6 | Yellow 6 | ||||||
| 33 | Yellow 2 | Yellow 6 | |||||||
| 34 | Yellow 2 | Yellow 3 | Yellow 3 | Yellow 6 | |||||
| 35 | Yellow 2 | Yellow 3 | Yellow 3 | Yellow 6 | |||||
| 36 | Yellow 2 | Yellow 3 | Yellow 3 | Yellow 6 | |||||
| 37 | Yellow 2 | Yellow 3 | Yellow 3 | Yellow 3 | Yellow 1 | ||||
| 38 | Yellow 3 | Yellow 3 | Yellow 1 | ||||||
| 39 | Yellow 3 | Yellow 1 | |||||||
| 40 | Yellow 1 | Yellow 3 | Yellow 1 | ||||||
| 41 | Yellow 1 | Yellow 3 | |||||||
| 42 | Yellow 1 | Yellow 3 | Yellow 2 | ||||||
| 43 | Yellow 1 | Yellow 3 | Yellow 2 | ||||||
| 44 | Yellow 1 | Yellow 2 | |||||||
| 45 | Yellow 2 | ||||||||
| 46 | Yellow 2 | ||||||||
| 47 | Yellow 7 | ||||||||
| 48 | Yellow 3 | Yellow 3 | |||||||
| 49 | Yellow 3 | Yellow 3 | |||||||
| 50 | Yellow 3 | Yellow 3 | |||||||
| 51 | Yellow 3 | ||||||||
| 52 | Yellow 4 | Yellow 3 | |||||||
| 53 | Yellow 4 | Yellow 3 | |||||||
| 54 | |||||||||
| 55 | Yellow 4 | ||||||||
| 56 | Yellow 4 | Yellow 4 | Yellow 4 | ||||||
| 57 | Yellow 4 | Yellow 4 | |||||||
| 58 | Yellow 4 | ||||||||
| 59 | Yellow 3 | Yellow 5 | |||||||
| 60 | Yellow 3 | Yellow 5 | |||||||
| 61 | Yellow 3 | ||||||||
| 62 | Yellow 3 | Yellow 6 | |||||||
| 63 | Yellow 6 | ||||||||
| 64 | Yellow 7 | ||||||||
| 65 | Yellow 4 | ||||||||
| 66 | Yellow 4 | Yellow 4 | |||||||
| 67 | Yellow 4 | ||||||||
| 68 | Yellow 5 | Yellow 4 | |||||||
| 69 | Yellow 5 | ||||||||
| 70 | Yellow 5 | ||||||||
| 71 | Yellow 5 | ||||||||
| 72 | |||||||||
| 73 | |||||||||
| 74 | |||||||||
| 75 | |||||||||
| 76 | |||||||||
| 77 | |||||||||
| 78 | |||||||||
| 79 | |||||||||
| 80 | |||||||||
| 81 | |||||||||
| 82 | |||||||||
| 83 | |||||||||
| 84 | |||||||||
| 85 | |||||||||
| 86 | |||||||||
| 87 | |||||||||
| 88 | Yellow 6 | ||||||||
| 89 | Yellow 6 |
Cautions per Year
| 2007 | 2008 | 2012 | 2013 #1 | 2013 #2 | 2014 #1 | 2014 #2 | 2015 #1 | 2015 #2 | |
| Total Cautions | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 7 |
| Total Caution Laps | 19 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 22 | 17 | 13 | 18 | 18 |
| Average Caution Length (Laps) | 3.2 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| First Caution Lap | 28 | 1 | 40 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 37 |
| Last Restart (Laps Remaining) | 18 | 19 | 7 | 32 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 15 | 4 |
In the Strategy Preview for Detroit, I lauded the DW12 for reducing the number of cautions at races in Detroit. That trend didn't hold it 2015. I blame the weekend's rain for the high number of yellows. Race 1 started on a wet track with no rain falling. After a dry line formed, drivers switched to dry weather 'slick' (treadless) tires. When a driver stayed on the dry line, slicks were the way to go. However, attempting a pass forced the driver to move off the dry line to a wet portion of the track, while still racing on dry weather tires. This was a recipe for disaster, and the timing of the yellows shows this. Yellows in race 1 were clustered in the first half of the race, when there was an entirely wet track or only a single car dry line, which made passing difficult. After the track dried off (and before the race ending rain that began to fall later in the race), we were treated to fascinating green flag racing.
Race 2 was similar to race 1. Wet tires were the optimal tire at the start of the race, and continued to be the best choice until a dry line formed around lap 40, at which point most drivers switched to slicks despite the fact that there was only a single car width of dry line. This is when the cautions started, and boy were there a lot of them. After 36 laps of green flag racing to start race 2, the longest stretch of consecutive green flag laps was 5. Race 2 had 17 caution laps, and all of them were in the second half of the race. It was painful to watch.
Lap Number of the Winner's Pit Stops*
| Year | 2013 #1 | 2013 #2 | 2014 #1 | 2014 #2 | 2015 #1 | 2015 #2 |
| Winner | Conway | Pagenaud | Power | Castroneves | Munoz | Bourdais |
| Stop 1 | 24 | 20 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 22 |
| Stop 2 | 53 | 29 | 30 | 33 | 42 | 38 |
| Stop 3 | N/A | 55 | 53 | 49 | N/A | N/A |
*Each cell contains the lap number and track condition (green or yellow) for each of the winner's pit stops.
Although the cautions during both races were a huge negative, the weather also had a positive impact on the race viewing experience: it introduced an extreme element of tire strategy. Especially in race 1, track conditions seemed to be in a near constant state of change. The changing conditions presented ample opportunities for drivers to take strategy gambles. It was fascinating to see how every strategy decision could be disastrous if the weather chose to be uncooperative.
In race 1, Marco Andretti was one of the first drivers to pit for slick tires. This cost him a lot of track position, and Andretti was frustrated immediately after his stop by his inability to venture off the dry line to pass. Father Michael Andretti kept Marco calm on the radio and reminded him that if the track continued to dry, he was in an excellent position strategically, regardless of whether he was able to pass cars at that moment.
Carlos Munoz took slick tires during a lap 15 caution along with most of the leaders. Andretti inherited the lead when he stayed out during the lap 15 caution: he had already put on slick tires during his earlier pit stop.
The race was decided between laps 36 and 43. Will Power pitted from 4th for wet tires on lap 36, while Andretti overruled repeated calls from the pit wall to stop for rain tires (made by his team owner and father of all people) and waited to pit until he needed fuel on lap 40. Munoz waited until lap 42 to pit for fuel and wet tires. Waiting proved to be the right call. The chart below shows each driver's lap time in seconds during a green flag stretch from lap 36 to lap 43. Each of the 3 drivers shown made a pit stop during this time, so it is an apples to apples comparison.
| Lap Time (Sec) | Lap 36 | Lap 37 | Lap 38 | Lap 39 | Lap 40 | Lap 41 | Lap 42 | Lap 43 | Total Time (Sec) | Gap to Munoz |
| Munoz (lap 42 pit) | 83.5 | 83.3 | 81.9 | 80.7 | 83.9 | 81.1 | 106.4 | 96.5 | 698 | 0 |
| Andretti (lap 40 pit) | 83.2 | 84.3 | 82.2 | 81.4 | 105.6 | 95.6 | 95.3 | 96.5 | 724 | 27 |
| Power (lap 36 pit) | 90.0 | 106.2 | 90.5 | 91.5 | 91.5 | 94.0 | 98.2 | 98.8 | 761 | 63 |
Munoz gained 27 seconds over Andretti by stopping only 2 laps later than Andretti. That's over 13 seconds per lap, and Munoz was 1 second slower than Andretti on both his 'in-lap' and 'out-lap'. Munoz gained 63 seconds over Power between laps 36 and 43, gaining an average of over 7.5 seconds per lap on Power. Needless to say, no one was able to overcome the advantage Munoz gained during this portion of the race: the race would end under the next yellow flag, giving Munoz a well earned first career win.
Munoz was understandably subdued in 'victory lane' after the race. I imagine it's hard to get excited over winning a race that was shortened by rain when you don't even get to be the first car to pass under the checkered flags. However, Munoz should hold his head high. He had the confidence in himself to delay stopping for wet tires, and had the skill to execute this strategy in tricky conditions.
Race 2 was more straightforward. Wet tires were the best choice until around lap 40. James Jakes made a brave effort to try slicks on lap 2, but was roughly 10 seconds per lap slower than leader Juan Pablo Montoya and soon pitted for treaded tires. After lap 40, conditions didn't favor either the treaded or slick tires. This stalemate lasted until around lap 50, at which point the track was dry enough that the slick tires were clearly the way to go.
Sebastien Bourdais was the 2nd car to return to the track (behind Scott Dixon, more on that in a bit) after making his 2nd pit stop on lap 38. There were enough caution laps after lap 38 to allow Bourdais to make it to the end of the race without needing another pit stop. Bourdais' fuel economy earned him his first win of 2015.
Dixon's Bad Decision
Scott Dixon bizarrely opted to take another set of wet tires during his lap 38 pit stop. This was a terrible decision. At that point in the race, the track clearly had a dry line and was getting dryer each lap. There were only a few cars who stayed out on wets on lap 38, and Dixon's team should have seen that other teams were switching to dry weather tires during the stops. A championship contender like Dixon should be covering the majority of the field by taking slicks, especially when he was the first car to enter the pits: he would likely be one of the first cars to return to the track, and be running in the top 5. There was no reason to gamble that more rain was coming when no one else was expecting it.
Dixon hadn't shown race winning pace all weekend in Detroit. Yes, the championship winner will probably need 3 or 4 wins in 2015, but Dixon is ridiculously strong in the 2nd half of the IndyCar calendar anyways. Those wins will come later.
Had that been a non-championship contender, or had Dixon been running in 15th for some reason, I wouldn't mind the gamble. In the end, Dixon was forced to make an extra stop on lap 49, costing him track position. This stop left him buried in 15th, where he was eventually run off the track by teammate Charlie Kimball. Dixon can't get back the points he left on the table during race 2. I hope for his sake he doesn't look back on Detroit race 2 as the race that cost him the championship.
Restart Shenanigans
Restarts are a challenging time in the race for drivers. The proximity of cars to each other means that it's easy to gain or lose several positions. There are several rules that are supposed to govern driver conduct during restarts and keep them from getting too crazy.
IndyCar's 2015 rulebook states:
7.6.1.2 - After the starter gives the 'one (1) lap to go' signal and prior to the restart, Cars must line up in single file formation with no gaps or lagging between Cars.
7.6.1.3 - The leader is required to maintain the pace lap speed until reaching a point designated by IndyCar near the start/finish line when the leader shall accelerate smoothly back to racing speed and the Green Condition will then be declared. All Car(s) must maintain their respective Track positions until the Green Condition is declared.
Graham Rahal was furious with Sebastien Bourdais during Sunday's race because Rahal felt that Bourdais was slowing down before accelerating (thanks for the audio, IndyCar 15 app!). During a restart, the leader can get a jump on other cars by accelerating briefly and slowing down slightly. Other drivers are then forced to slow to avoid hitting or passing the leader before the green flag. While the other drivers are slowing, the leader can accelerate again and open enough of a gap to avoid being passed. Sadly, I don't have enough data to support or disprove Rahal's theory. Maybe if IndyCar made throttle trace data available to the public...
Fortunately, I do have enough data to weigh in on another driver's frustrations from race 2 in Detroit. Juan Pablo Montoya was livid when he was passed by Takuma Sato on the lap 64 restart. ABC's coverage was unhelpful in resolving this issue. They synchronized the audio call of 'Green, Green, Green' with video of Sato's pass, and quickly agreed that Sato had timed his move to perfection and consequentially not violated rule 7.6.1.3.
The problem with ABC's analysis is that it overlooks a crucial part of the rule, specifically that cars must line up without gaps or lagging. I mentioned earlier that the leader can gain an advantage by slowing down just before a restart. Cars running behind the leader can 'counteract' this by starting with a gap between their cars and the leader. When the leader slows, the trailing driver does not have to slow down: (s)he can simply continue to accelerate while the gap to the lead car disappears. If this move is well timed (and not penalized), the green flag will be thrown just before the trailing car pulls out to pass the leading car with a big speed advantage.
Sector time data shines a bright light on the situation. At this point in the race, Sebastien Bourdais was leading, followed by Juan Pablo Montoya and Takuma Sato. The chart below shows each driver's average speed (mph) through the final 3 sectors of the Belle Isle circuit on lap 64 of Sunday's race, according to IndyCar's sector time data. The green flag was thrown just as drivers were completing lap 64. Sector 7 consists of turn 12 and turn 13, Sector 8 is the straightaway between turn 13 and turn 14, and contains the final turn (14), and ends at the start/finish line.
| Avg MPH | Sector 7 | Sector 8 | Sector 9 |
| Bourdais | 70.991 | 91.402 | 134.261 |
| Montoya | 73.681 | 91.756 | 128.81 |
| Sato | 75.036 | 103.453 | 134.584 |
Takuma Sato's average speed through Sector 8 was 12mph faster than Bourdais and Montoya. To put it differently, it took Bourdais and Montoya 2.93 and 2.92 seconds respectively to pass through Sector 8. Sato only needed 2.59 seconds. There is simply no way that Sato was that much faster through Sector 8 without hanging back from Montoya. Another look at the replay reveals that Sato did in fact 'lay back' on this restart. A lot. Which brings me to my pseudo-statistical soapbox...
Pseudo-Statistical Soapbox
IndyCar race control needs to be more consistent. Juan Pablo Montoya received a warning for laying back on a restart while running in the middle of the field during the Indianapolis 500, but Takuma Sato clearly did something illegal (see above) at the front of the field during a restart in Detroit and didn't even receive a warning.
According to Jon Beekhuis, who is certainly worth following on Twitter, race control is trying to adjust the severity of penalties to fit the crime this year. That's a very difficult goal. Racing is inherently full of grey areas, and no 2 incidents are alike. There's no easy way to determine which types of blocking warrant a drive through penalty under green, which types warrant sending a driver to the back of the field under a caution, or which warrant merely forcing a driver to give a position up to the driver (s)he blocked.
Adjusting penalties based on the severity of the infraction might be a good idea if you're an officiating body that has earned ample goodwill from series participants, but I don't think IndyCar has much goodwill at the moment. IndyCar's no-call on Helio Castroneves after taking out Scott Dixon on lap 1 of the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and their handling of Indianapolis 500 qualifying have frustrated many in the paddock. The series should focus on eliminating as many grey areas as possible from the rule book and leaving as little up to the stewards' discretion as possible, not adding new layers of complexity to an already difficult and thankless job.
Flip-Flopping on the Issues
In the Indianapolis 500 Strategy Review I mentioned a quote from Graham Rahal saying that 'Chevy was just in a league of its own, unfortunately, on horsepower' compared to Honda. Since the Indianapolis 500, Rahal has done a complete 180. Earlier this week, Rahal was quoted as saying 'And I don't put it on HPD. Our engines are very good, get great mileage, and our Honda engine [technician] has been a big part of our success this year. It's Wirth that hasn't done the job for them.'
I doubt that Rahal would be severely misquoted in either one of these articles, and I also find it hard to believe that someone who has spent his entire life around racing would misdiagnose a seemingly basic deficiency, especially after he and his entire legion of engineers have surely spent countless hours looking at data from this year's underperforming Honda cars. I initially thought that the blame for Honda's woes rested with the aero kit, but Rahal's flip-flop has made me wonder if someone has decided that Wirth will be the scapegoat for Honda's lack of performance.
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