Drivers in this section are legitimate threats for multiple wins. They all have a flaw (often average finishing position on a particular type of track) that will prevent them from winning a championship, but there's a good chance these guys will visit the winner's circle multiple times in 2015.
Juan Pablo Montoya
| 2014 | |||
| Values | Oval | Road | Street |
| Average Start Position | 6.5 | 11.5 | 13.4 |
| Average Finish Position | 5.2 | 13.3 | 11.3 |
Predicted 2015 Average Finish Rank: 6th
I must confess, I was concerned that Montoya would struggle in his return to IndyCar. During his last few years in stock cars, Montoya's firesuit seemed to get tighter and tighter, and I thought his years of competing for 15th might have taken away some of his fire.
Boy was I wrong.
Montoya's average finish on ovals was a series best 5.2, and he had the third best oval qualifying average as well. Obviously his race of the year was the win at Pocono, but Montoya also had 3 other podiums at Texas, Houston (race 1), and Milwaukee. Furthermore, he maximized his track time by finishing all but the race at Iowa, where he was taken out by a competitor.
Potential Weakness: Road and Street Course Qualifying
Montoya posted 9 double digit finishes in 2014, and 8 of them were on road or street tracks. I don't think the problem is what he does during the race. In IndyCar, races are shorter and drivers can't catch up during 'debris cautions' that 'happen' to come out anytime the leader has a gap of 5 seconds on the second place car. Qualifying is important. Montoya's average starting position ranks of 10th on road courses and 13th on street courses aren't terrible, but they need to be improved on if he wants to contend for another open wheel championship. He is starting from so far back in the field that podiums are difficult to achieve. Any improvement on Saturday will pay dividends on Sunday and help him earn single digit finishes.
Recommended Strategy: Focus on Qualifying
During practice, Montoya should focus more on his qualifying setups. Races are short enough that drivers don't have enough time to dig themselves out of a hole that they dig in qualifying.
James Hinchcliffe
| Oval | Road | Street | |||||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Average Starting Position | 7.8 | 6 | 9.2 | 9 | 13.7 | 8.5 | 10 | 9.5 | 7.3 |
| Average Finishing Position | 8.6 | 10.7 | 14 | 12.3 | 14.7 | 10.5 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 12 |
Hinchcliffe regressed in 2014. After collecting 3 wins and another podium in 2013, Hinchcliffe only had 1 podium finish in 2014. That's unfortunate for Hinchcliffe. Since he doesn't appear to be consistent enough to challenge for a championship, wins are the best way for him to make a splash in IndyCar.
Hinchcliffe's move to Schmidt-Peterson Motorsports (SPM) will be telling. (Hinchcliffe lost his ride at Andretti Autosport because of a lack of sponsorship.) Hinchcliffe's former team was well funded, and he could rely on his championship winning teammate Ryan Hunter-Reay for assistance setting up the car. Now Hincliffe will be the lead driver with complete responsibility for setup and development.
SPM has spent the last several years punching above its weight with Simon Pagenaud in the cockpit. I'm not sure that Hinchcliffe is quite on Pagenaud's level. It's easy to see 2015 ending with both parties disappointed in the other - Hinchcliffe misses the data from his bigger former team, and SPM misses one of the best drivers in the series. On the other hand, Hinchcliffe may embrace the challenge of leading a team, and SPM may continue to deliver impressive results.
Potential Weakness: Lead lap finishes
There's no middle ground at the track for Hinchcliffe: he's either battling near the front of the pack or failing to stay on the lead lap. From 2012 to 2014, he finished on the lead lap in 60%, 58%, and 50% of races respectively. I don't expect Hinchcliffe to win every race, but it's hard to win races after going a lap down. Hinchcliffe needs to reverse this trend in 2015.
Recommended Strategy: Limit crashes
Hinchcliffe's new SPM team does not have the funding that Andretti Autosport does. I don't have any special knowledge of SPM's finances, but I suspect that totaling a car would be a lot tougher on SPM's budget than it would be on Andretti Autosport's.
Tony Kanaan
| Oval | Road | Street | |||||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Average Starting Position | 8.6 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 13.3 | 18 | 10.8 | 14.3 | 10.9 | 10.5 |
| Average Finishing Position | 7.4 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 16.7 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 15.9 | 8 |
Kanaan's stats could be used to support 2 completely different stories. You could say that Kanaan is past his prime and point out that the last time he won more than 1 race in a year was 2007. Alternatively, I prefer to see 2014 as the start of a second wind of Kanaan's career. Kanaan had 6 podiums, the most he's earned since 2008. More importantly and impressively, his average finishing position at road courses and street courses improved in 2014 relative to 2013. I expect this trend to continue in 2015.
Potential Weakness: Road courses
Kanaan's average finishing position on road courses in 2013 was 13.3. If he wants to add another championship trophy to his collection, his performance on road courses must improve dramatically.
Recommended Strategy: Forget about points
The 2015 champion will need to win at least 3, and probably 4 races, and have 3 other finishes of 2nd or 3rd place. Kanaan's last win on a road or street course was 2008, and there are only 6 ovals on the schedule. There is no way that a driver will win half of the oval races in 2015, which means that Kanaan won't be able to score enough points to win the championship. Knowing this ahead of time will free the team to race for wins, not points.
Ed Carpenter (Ovals)
| Oval | |||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Average Starting Position | 19 | 9.2 | 8.3 |
| Average Finishing Position | 10 | 7.2 | 9.7 |
Words cannot describe how impressed I was by Carpenter’s decision to step out of the cockpit for all road and street course races in 2014. Carpenter started his own team in 2012 and struggled mightily on ‘twisties’ in 2012 and 2013. In 2014 he decided to do something about it and hired road course specialist Mike Conway to take his place. It was a match made in heaven: Conway had recently decided that he no longer wanted to race on oval tracks. The move paid great dividends for the team. Conway won twice (Long Beach and Toronto race #2), and Carpenter won at Texas.
On the (oval) track, Carpenter is usually a threat
to win. He has won the pole for the Indianapolis 500 for 2 consecutive
years. His partial schedule allows him to focus on wins and forget
about scoring points. His aggression probably
costs him a few 2nd or 3rd place finishes, but I suspect Carpenter feels that the wins
that he does get are worth the sacrifice.
Potential Weakness: Milwaukee
Given Carpenter’s sprint car background, I would
expect him to excel at short, low banked tracks like Milwaukee. I’d be
wrong. In 10 starts at Milwaukee, Carpenter has lead only 3 laps. His
best finish was 7th in 2007, and
he’s finished on the lead lap only twice. To his credit, he has only
retired because of a crash once, so at least he manages to bring the car
home in one piece.Recommended Strategy: Stay aggressive
Carpenter can race without worrying about collecting points since he shares his car with another driver. Wins are the best way for him to raise the image of his sponsors and team. Settling for a podium when there's a chance of a win would be the wrong decision for Carpenter.
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