All these drivers have either won races since 2012, or been close enough that I believe there's a good chance they'll win in 2015.
Sebastien Bourdais
| Oval | Road | Street | |||||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Average Starting Position | 25 | 12.8 | 15.3 | 8.7 | 16 | 6.8 | 14.4 | 13.7 | 7.4 |
| Average Finishing Position | 20 | 18.8 | 15.3 | 11.7 | 12.7 | 8 | 18.9 | 9.6 | 9.9 |
I was surprised to realize the 2015 will only be Bourdais’ 3rd
full season of IndyCar racing. Bourdais won 4 straight championships
in CART from 2004 to 2007, and then spent an unsuccessful season and a
half with Toro Rosso
in Formula 1 beginning in 2008. He has also made many starts at Le Mans, most
notably with Peugeot’s prototype team. His first full season of IndyCar
was 2013.
Bourdais has not been as successful in IndyCar as I
would expect given his 4 consecutive CART championships. In his 57
IndyCar starts since 2011, he has only 1 race win (Toronto race 1 in
2014). Admittedly he hasn’t driven for bigger
IndyCar teams. But while drivers like Simon Pagenaud and Mike Conway
have won multiple races for smaller teams, Bourdais has not. I suspect
this is more of an indictment of the quality of competition Bourdais battled
in CART than it is his own abilities.
I doubt that Bourdais will find the speed on ovals to compete for another championship, but he has improved his average oval finishing position by nearly 5 places since 2012. Another win or 2 each season (most likely on road and street courses) is a realistic goal.
Potential Weakness: Race pace
Bourdais average finishes on road and street courses in 2014 were worse than his average starting positions on road and street courses in 2014.
Recommended Strategy: Focus on race pace
Bourdais seems to struggle to maintain position during races. Qualifying in IndyCar is important, but the competition is tight enough that a poor race setup will cost a driver positions during the race. Instead of making the car quick over a single qualifying lap, his engineers should focus on making the car more consistent over the course of a fuel run.
Charlie Kimball
| Oval | Road | Street | |||||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Average Starting Position | 17 | 13 | 12.8 | 21.5 | 5.3 | 17.8 | 16.4 | 14.9 | 18.1 |
| Average Finishing Position | 13.8 | 11.2 | 16 | 23 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 11.7 | 11.6 | 11 |
Kimball's first 4 years in IndyCar have shown him to be a competent driver who will occasionally score podiums. I don't think he's shown enough speed or improvement to indicate that he'll be a championship contender, but he seems to have a knack at improving his position during a race.
Kimball's average finishes on ovals and road courses dropped in 2014 compared to 2013. His ability to bounce back will probably depend on his ability to address a major weakness in his skills.
Potential Weakness: Qualifying
Kimball's average starting position between 2012 and 2014 ranks an abysmal 18th among active 2015 drivers. There is simply no excuse for anyone with Ganassi equipment to qualify this poorly. I suspect that Kimball may be faster than drivers who finish ahead of him during races, but he doesn't have enough time to catch and pass them during the race.
Recommended Strategy: Work on qualifying setup
Again, there is no excuse to have the 18th best qualifying average when you drive for Ganassi. The team has quality qualifying setups, as evidenced by Scott Dixon and Tony Kanaan's qualifying performances with the team.
Carlos Munoz
| Oval | Road | Street | |||
| Year | 2013 | 2014 | 2014 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Average Starting Position | 6 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 24 | 10.9 |
| Average Finishing Position | 12.5 | 10.3 | 17.5 | 17 | 11.8 |
Munoz's rookie year in IndyCar was impressive. His overall average finish ranks better than drivers with much more experience like Sebastien Bourdais and Graham Rahal. I am still impressed with his IndyCar debut at the 2013 Indianapolis 500 where he finished in an unbelievable 2nd place.
Potential Weakness: Road Courses
An average finish of 17.5 on road courses leaves Munoz a lot of room to improve in 2015. The good news is that finishes of 23 at Barber and 24th at the Indy GP were retirements. Simply running at the finish will improve his points finish.
Recommended Strategy: Finish Races
Rookies nearly always struggle to finish races, and Munoz was no exception. He had 5 DNFs in 2014, and 3 were for crashes. I expect Munoz will improve as he gains experience in 2015, and I wouldn't be surprised if Munoz is a championship threat in a few years.
Josef Newgarden
| Oval | Road | Street | |||||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Average Starting Position | 14.6 | 16.2 | 10 | 15.3 | 19 | 5.8 | 12.3 | 17.9 | 13.9 |
| Average Finishing Position | 19.6 | 14.5 | 11 | 17.3 | 18.7 | 10.8 | 17.5 | 11.8 | 17.3 |
Newgarden crashed out of 4 races in 2014, but by my count 3 of them weren't his fault. Yes, that's only 1 race fewer than Takuma Sato crashed out of, but when you're young and inexperienced, you're entitled to a few more 'mistakes'.
Last year, Newgarden was leading at Mid-Ohio when a crew member's mistake in the pits resulted in a drive through penalty, resulting in a 12th place finish. Newgarden held his head high and refused to throw his team under the bus.
Newgarden spent his first 3 years in IndyCar with the single car Sarah Fisher Hartman racing. SFH has merged with Ed Carpenter's team, and I think this will be a huge benefit for Newgarden. Carpenter's team should have better oval setups for him, and a teammate will help with data collection on road courses as well.
Potential Weakness: Street course qualifying
Passing on narrow street circuits is difficult. Starting closer to the front of the field would make life much easier for Newgarden.
Recommended Strategy: Develop chemistry with teammates
I have no idea how teammates can develop chemistry with one another, but Newgarden needs to figure it out. He's been given a great opportunity to work with a teammate in 2015, and chemistry should help him share information with Ed Carpetner and Luca Filippi.
Takuma Sato
| Oval | Road | Street | |||||||
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Average Starting Position | 21.4 | 17.2 | 12.2 | 19.7 | 13.3 | 17.8 | 13.1 | 9.7 | 10.3 |
| Average Finishing Position | 15.6 | 15.5 | 16.8 | 21.3 | 19.7 | 11 | 12.1 | 15.2 | 16.8 |
Takuma Sato may be the most unpredictable driver in IndyCar. He is usually a non-factor (often because of DNFs), but will occasionally be blindingly quick.
Oddly, this crash prone driver is most successful during street course qualifying. He has the 7th best starting position on street courses to go along with his 3 street course poles since 2012. It seems that Sato can squeeze every last hundredth of a second from the car during qualifying, but is unable to maintain this level of precision for the duration of a race.
Potential Weakness: Crashes
Finishing races is a real struggle for Sato. He has only been running at the finish in 27 of his 52 IndyCar races since 2012 (52%). Many of these DNFs are crashes: he crashed out of 4 races in 2012 (27% of all starts), 4 races in 2013 (21% of all starts), and 5 races in 2014 (28% of all starts).
To be fair, 12 of Sato's DNFs were not caused by crashes, but I suspect his cars would be more reliable if the team didn't spend most of its time between races fixing crash damage.
Recommended Strategy: Calm down
To finish first, you must first finish. Sato is lucky that someone with money likes him - I wouldn't continue to pay for a driver with his experience to wreck so many cars.
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